Before getting to next week’s big election, in the United States, I thought it’d be worth having a look at three provincial results from recent weeks in Canada – two elections and a referendum.
First up was Quebec, which went to the polls on 5 October to elect its provincial parliament, the National Assembly. Four years ago, as I reported at the time, the moderate nationalist party, Coalition for Quebec’s Future (CAQ), won a second term in office with an increased majority, taking 90 of the 125 seats from 41.0% of the vote.
But what the electoral system gives, the electoral system can also take away. Instead of inflating its majority, this time it exaggerated CAQ’s defeat, although that was plenty bad enough anyway. Its support plunged to 13.4% and it lost all of its seats, which pundits describe as the worst defeat for a provincial government in Canada’s history. (See official results here.)
With CAQ in the middle of the spectrum, nationalist but anti-independence, both sides made gains at its expense. The separatist Parti Québécois (PQ) finished with 60 seats (up 57) from 28.0% of the vote (up 13.4%); it will govern with the support of the more radical Solidarity Quebec, which had 12.4% (down 3.0%) and nine seats (down two). The Liberals, traditionally the main anti-independence party, will again lead the opposition; they had 24.2% (up 9.9%) and 39 seats (up 18). The Conservatives, who failed to win a seat last time, also did well with 20.7% (up 7.8%) and 19 seats.
New premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has promised a referendum on independence but its prospects look bleak, given that only about 40% of the voters supported pro-independence parties – even though the system delivered them a majority of seats. He has also promised badly-needed reform to the electoral system, but such promises have been broken many times before.
In British Columbia, on the other hand, the electoral system for once wasn’t a major factor. (Referenda on reform there have been repeatedly defeated, most recently in 2018.) Since the disappearance of the province’s Liberals a few years ago there has been a two-party system, with the centre-left New Democratic Party (NDP), in power since 2017, facing off against the centre-right Conservatives.
The issue this time was that NDP premier David Eby, re-elected two years ago with a one-seat majority, decided to call an early election to capitalise on leadership turmoil in the Conservatives. Voters were unimpressed. Last Saturday they flocked to the Conservatives; Lorne Doerkson was only their interim leader, two previous leaders having been disposed of within the past year, but he will be the new premier after they won 48.1% of the vote (up 4.8%) and 63 of the 93 seats (up 27).
The NDP dropped from 47 seats to 28 for their 37.4% (down 7.5%). The Greens were the only other party to trouble the scorers, taking 11.0% of the vote (up 2.7%) and two seats (unchanged). Perhaps the next premier will think twice before going to the polls ahead of time.
In between those two, temporally as well as geographically, Alberta went to the polls on 19 October for a referendum on potential independence. Voters were asked to choose between two options: to stay in Canada, or to commence a process that would lead ultimately to a definitive referendum to secede. You can read my earlier report on the issue here.
Even though they weren’t being asked for a firm commitment yet, Albertans decided that independence was not something worth pursuing. A crushing majority, 74.9%, voted to stick with Canada. Two large rural electorates in the west of the province voted narrowly to seek a referendum; the other 85 all voted against. (See official results here.) Turnout was a healthy 70.4%.
It’s a good result for prime minister Mark Carney, endorsing national unity in the face of the threat from across the border. But it’s also good news for his political opponent, Alberta premier Danielle Smith, vindicating her decision to hold the referendum and taking what could have been a major distraction off the table for the foreseeable future.
