As summer in the northern hemisphere comes to an end, it’s election time in a range of countries. Sweden goes to the polls on Sunday; I’ll give a quick preview below. I’m not sure how many of the others we’ll get to cover here, but here’s a list of what else is coming up in the next eight weeks:
- 20 September: the German state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania; also parliamentary “elections” in Russia.
- 23 September: Morocco.
- 3 October: Latvia.
- 4 October: Bosnia & Herzegovina; also Brazil, which is in the southern hemisphere but is too important to leave out.
- 5 October: Quebec.
- 19 October: Alberta’s referendum on possible secession from Canada.
- 24 October: local and regional elections in Slovakia.
- 25 October: Serbia; also a presidential election in Bulgaria.
- 27 October: Israel.
- 3 November: United States mid-term elections.
The last Swedish election, four years ago, unseated its then Social Democrat government. Four right-of-centre parties – Liberals, Christian Democrats, Moderates (centre-right) and Sweden Democrats (far right) – won a narrow majority between them, with 176 of the 349 seats. After a month of talks the first three agreed to form government together, and the Sweden Democrats (who were the largest of the four) agreed to provide external support; Moderate leader Ulf Kristersson became prime minister.
The alliance has held together for the full term, with the four parties being popularly known as the Tidö parties, after the castle where their agreement was negotiated. The Sweden Democrats, once the most explicitly neo-fascist of the northern European far-right parties, have continued on the path of relative moderation, while the Liberals, notionally the progressive wing of the coalition, have resigned themselves to co-operation with the far right. They now say they are willing to sit with far-right ministers in a new government if the Tidö parties again win a majority.
That’s not going to be easy, though: the current state of the polls has them behind, although still within range. The four opposition parties (Social Democrats, Centre, Greens and Left), who won 48.9% between them last time, have been consistently hovering just over the 50% mark – despite the poor performance of the Social Democrats, who, while still the country’s largest party, look set to fall below 30% for only the second time in a hundred years.
The opposition also has a further opportunity if the Liberals, whose voters don’t seem to much like the idea of being in bed with the Sweden Democrats, were to fall below the 4% threshold for representation. Last time they had 4.6%, so there’s not much margin for error, although the most recent polls have been a bit better for them.
If the left-of-centre parties do win a majority it doesn’t necessarily follow that they will form government together. A wide ideological gulf separates Centre and Left (a mirror image of the tension between the Liberals and far right) and it’s far from clear that they would be able to co-operate enough to sustain a governing majority. Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson may instead try to entice the Liberals and/or Christian Democrats to switch sides and support a more centrist-leaning government, along the lines of neighboring Denmark.
The World is Not Enough 