Bumper African roundup

It’s a bumper month for African elections, some more democratic than others, plus a change of government this week by other means. Here’s a quick rundown of what’s been happening, starting with one left over from last month.

Malawi

Malawi went to the polls just on a month ago for presidential and parliamentary elections. The previous election was something of a triumph for democracy: the first time it was held, in 2019, then-president Peter Mutharika was declared re-elected, but after protests the constitutional court invalidated the poll and ordered a re-run. The second time around, in June 2020, opposition candidate Lazarus Chakwera was successful with a comfortable 59.3% of the vote.

This year there were 17 candidates for president, but fundamentally it was a rematch between Chakwera and Mutharika. Early reports suggested it would be close and that a runoff might be required, but in the end Mutharika prevailed with 56.8% to Chakwera’s 33.0%, a margin of about 1.27 million votes. Dalitso Kabambe was the best of the others with 4.0%.

Chakwera promptly conceded defeat, sensibly remarking that although he thought there were irregularities, he recognised the “collective will to have a change of government.” But since Mutharika is 85 and Chakwera 70, it’s likely that what Malawi (which is in pretty bad shape) really needs is some generational change.

Gabon

Gabon held its parliamentary election in two rounds, on 27 September and 11 October. This follows on from April’s presidential election, in which General Brice Oligui Nguema, who had seized power in a military coup in 2023, was elected (or at least “elected”) president with 94.9% of the vote.

So you won’t be surprised to learn that the president’s party, the Democratic Union of Builders, won a big majority in the legislature, with 101 of the 145 seats. Its main opponent, the Gabonese Democratic Party of deposed president Ali Bongo, won 15 seats, with another 21 for an assortment of minor parties and independents. The remaining eight seats have had their results annulled and will vote again this weekend.

Oligui Nguema is clearly not the worst military ruler around, and the election at least marks the return to a limited sort of constitutional rule – which is better than some of Gabon’s neighbors can boast.

Seychelles

Seychelles was holding both parliamentary and presidential elections, with the first round on 27 September. My preview of the 2020 election explains some of the background: on that occasion Wavel Ramkalawan won the presidency at his sixth attempt with 54.9% of the vote, and his party, the Seychelles Democratic Union, also won a big parliamentary majority.

This time it was closer. Ramkalawan trailed on the first round by about 1,500 votes, with 46.4% against 48.8% for his main challenger, Patrick Herminie. So a runoff was held last Saturday, and Herminie duly prevailed with 52.7%. In the parliamentary election the new president’s party, United Seychelles, won 15 of the 26 single-member districts and with 49.1% of the vote will also take four of the eight proportional seats, bringing the numbers to 19-11.

Just as in Malawi, it seems that the voters, having demonstrated to their satisfaction that they were able to vote out the incumbents, were then happy to do it again and return to the previous ruling party.

Cameroon

Cameroon, on the other hand, is yet to demonstrate that possibility, although its voters have not given up hope. President Paul Biya, who has been in the job since 1982, is aged 92 but still ran for re-election (having abolished term limits back in 2008) in an election held last Sunday. Maurice Kamto, who had been his main opponent last time (scoring 14.2%), was disqualified on dubious grounds, but the opposition seems to have rallied around former Biya ally Issa Tchiroma.

No official results have been released as yet, but Tchiroma has claimed victory, a claim that was predictably rejected by the government. Clearly Biya can’t last much longer, but whether the election will be the touchstone for his removal remains to be seen. (Meanwhile, check out this post from last year on some of Cameroon’s problems.)

Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast (also called Côte d’Ivoire) goes to the polls next week, on 25 October, for a presidential election that is unlikely to be competitive. Incumbent Alassane Ouattara was first elected in 2010 and was supposed to be limited to two five-year terms, but in 2020 – after first agreeing to step down – he changed his mind and went on to win almost unopposed after the opposition boycotted the poll.

So now Ouattara is running again (he’s 83; you may see a pattern here) and the constitutional council has disqualified his most prominent opponents, among them former prime minister Pascal Affi N’Guessan and former president Laurent Gbagbo. The best chance among those remaining is probably the latter’s ex-wife, Simone Gbagbo, but it looks very much as if the fix is in [link added] for Ouattara.

Tanzania

It’s a similar story in Tanzania, which votes threefour days later, on 2829 October. There at least the president is a bit younger: Samia Suluhu Hassan, 65, took the job in 2021 on the death of her predecessor, John Magufuli. Magufuli had ruled as an authoritarian, and Suluhu won good reviews at first for liberalisation (as once had Ouattara). But there were clearly limits.

The electoral commission has banned candidates from the two main opposition parties [link added], so it looks as if Suluhu will be untroubled in her quest for a mandate in her own right.

Madagascar

Finally to Madagascar, where the story again starts with a dodgy election: this time in 2023, when president Andry Rajoelina was elected to a constitutionally dubious third term with 59.0% of the vote, again with a boycott by much of the opposition. Last month, street protests led by a youth movement in the capital, Antananarivo, led to the dismissal of prime minister Christian Ntasy and promises of reform.

But the protesters were not satisfied and a fortnight of escalation led at the beginning of this week to the flight of Rajoelina and his government and the seizure of power by an elite army unit. Rajoelina purported to dissolve the national assembly, but it ignored the move and promptly impeached him.

Colonel Michael Randrianirina subsequently announced that he was taking over the presidency, allegedly with the support of the constitutional court. He promised a transitional period of up to two years before fresh elections; so far he seems to have popular support, but there is a long history (in Africa and elsewhere) of military chiefs who start out with good intentions but find that power quickly goes to their heads.