Bayrou survives again

French prime minister François Bayrou survived, as expected, another no-confidence motion overnight. This one was moved by the Socialists, who had supported him on the last occasion, back in February, but it was opposed by the far right and therefore won only 189 votes, exactly one hundred short of the required majority.

Last time the opposition had managed 121, being basically the strength of the other three left groups (LFI, Greens and Communists). The Socialists had been bought off with a promise to reconsider the controversial pension reforms of 2023, and talks were duly held to that effect, but they broke up last week without reaching agreement. Bayrou refused to send the question of lowering the pension age back to parliament, and the Socialists responded by trying to bring down the government.

So unity within the left has been restored, after a fashion, although LFI still complained about the Socialists’ “sectarianism” in not consulting beforehand on their motion. The crisis in relations with Bayrou came after Socialist Party secretary Olivier Faure was narrowly re-elected last month with 51.1% of the vote by party members, just 769 votes ahead of his rival, Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol – a margin almost unchanged from 2023 (although at least this time Mayer-Rossignol conceded defeat).

Faure therefore has a mandate to persevere with his policy of alliance with other left parties (the New Popular Front, or NFP), but he knows that the party remains split down the middle on the question. No doubt he also knows that if relations within the NFP are so difficult in opposition, their prospects of forming a workable government together, even if they were to somehow win a majority, would be chancy at best.

Meanwhile, Bayrou’s problems are by no means over. The far-right National Rally supported him last night as a temporary expedient, not wanting to be associated with an initiative from the left. It has given notice, however, that it intends to move against the government on the budget when parliament resumes in September, and if it does it will not be able to survive without some support from the left.

There is no obvious solution to the problem. None of the three – left, centre, and right, with the centre-right playing a support role between the latter two – is anywhere near a majority on its own, but co-operation between them invariably leads to a dead end. Left and right both refuse to work with the centre except on their own, unacceptable, terms, but they also seem unable to work with each other even as an opposition.

For all parties, the big game is the next presidential election, now less than two years away. Being in government prior to then is not necessarily an advantage, especially given France’s pressing economic and geopolitical worries. And no-one wants another early legislative election: that was the move twelve months ago that created the current mess.

All the same, it’s hard to see how the government is going to get through the budget session. Short-term prime ministers are nothing unusual in France; even in just the fifth republic, known for its relative stability, six of Bayrou’s predecessors lasted for less than a year. But president Emmanuel Macron is starting to run out of options. If Bayrou can’t make the current parliament work, who can?