Canada, live

I’m liveblogging the Canadian election results as they come in; updates will appear from the top. Times will be given as in eastern Canada (Ontario and Quebec), which is what the electoral commission uses; it’s 14 hours behind eastern Australian time.

4.50am. With no sign of any further progress in the count I’m going to wrap things up at that point. It’s still just possible that the Liberals could sneak over the line for a majority, but very unlikely. They have, however, done better than last time, gaining on present trends 11 seats, and enormously better than anyone would have thought possible four months ago.

The Conservatives have also improved on 2021, but that’s not much consolation when you’ve blown a twenty-point lead. They also appear to have lost their leader in the process. The other parties have all lost ground, disastrously so in the case of the NDP.

Speaking of the NDP, I should mention that one of the two doubtfuls in which it’s leading is Nunavut, consisting of the whole of the territory of the same name. Its lead is a relatively healthy-sounding 0.7%, 37.3% to 36.6%, but because Nunavut is very thinly populated that only represents 54 votes. So with two polling places yet to report it’s not impossible the Liberals could reel that in.

I’ll have another post tomorrow to review things.

4.20am. I think most of the counting staff must have given up for the night, because there’s been very little change in the last hour. The doubtful list is now down to thirty, but the lead has only changed in one seat: New Westminster-Burnaby-Maillardville (British Columbia), an NDP-held seat where the Liberals have now taken the lead from the Conservatives, by about 1,500 votes with three polling places yet to report.

Among the remaining doubtfuls is Pierre Poilievre’s seat, Carleton, where he trails by about 3,650 votes or four and a half points with 257 of the 266 polling places reporting. I can understand the networks being reluctant to count out the opposition leader, but it’s very hard to see him making up that deficit.

3.10am. They’ve taken Brampton-Chinguacousy Park (Liberal, Ontario) off the doubtful list, but otherwise no change. I’m taking another break; back in an hour or so to wrap up for the day.

2.55am. I can’t actually work out which one it was that shifted that time, but the Liberals are now up to 167; 145 Conservatives, 23 Quebec Bloc, seven NDP and one Green. Forty of those seats haven’t been called yet: twenty with Liberals leading, 16 Conservatives, and two each Bloc and NDP. The only ones among them that look really close are Terrebonne, where the Bloc is ahead, and Terra Nova-The Peninsulas, Kelowna and Brampton Centre, all with the Liberals leading.

2.20am. Now 166 Liberal leads: they’ve hit the front in Cumberland-Colchester (Nova Scotia), by almost 1,200 votes with just one polling place to come. They’re also now within 112 votes of the Conservatives in Milton East-Halton Hills South (Ontario), still with 14 polling places to come. And possibly a chance of overtaking the NDP in Vancouver Kingsway (British Columbia), where they trail by 275 with three still to report.

1.55am. The Liberals are now on 165 seats (up eight, if they all hold), against 147 Conservatives (up 21), 23 Quebec Bloc (down 11), seven NDP (down 17) and one Green (down one). The Liberals are also within 28 votes of overtaking the Quebeckers in Terrebonne, with one polling place still to come, and are themselves holding onto narrow leads (less than half a point in each) in Terra Nova-The Peninsulas (Newfoundland), Kelowna (British Columbia), Kitchener-Conestoga and Brampton Centre (both Ontario).

So if nothing changes from here, Liberals+NDP will have a one-seat majority, or three seats if you include the Greens. Which could make the government’s life a bit uncomfortable if the Conservatives and the Quebec Bloc learn to co-operate.

Although the polls were pretty accurate in terms of votes, the seat distribution is quite different from what Éric Grenier’s model predicted: it was tipping 189 Liberals to just 125 Conservatives.

1.30am. Prime minister Mark Carney is about to address his supporters, presumably to claim victory. Prior to the election he was not even an MP, but he has comfortably won his seat of Nepean, in Ontario. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, however, has not been so fortunate; he is trailing by four points in his seat of Carleton (also Ontario), and although the CBC hasn’t called it, with 80% counted it’s going to be very hard for him to pull that back.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has been defeated in his seat of Burnaby Central (British Columbia) – probably by the Liberals, although the Conservatives are not out of the running – and has announced his retirement.

1am (Ontario/Quebec time). Resuming from a break, the Liberals have improved their position but are still short of a majority, now leading in 164 seats out of the required 172. A number of seats are very close, among them Terra Nova-The Peninsulas in Newfoundland, one of the very first seats we looked at, where the Conservatives had led all night but the Liberals, with one polling place yet to come in, have now taken a lead of 46 votes.

12.20am. I’m going to take a break for lunch, but first a general summary. With roughly two-thirds of the vote counted, the opinion polls have been vindicated. The Liberal vote currently stands at 42.6%, up 10% on 2021, but that’s come at the expense of the NDP, which at 5.6% is down 12.2%. The Conservatives are also gaining, up 4.2% to 41.9%. The Quebec Bloc is roughly steady at 7.6%, but the other minors are well down: the Greens from 2.3% to 1.1% and the People’s Party from 4.9% to 0.8%.

So there’s an underlying movement from left to right, but the Liberals have held on because more of the minor party vote was available for them to cannibalise. They could still win a majority, but that now seems unlikely; they currently lead in 160 seats, as against 151 Conservatives, 23 Quebeckers, eight NDP and one Green. Assuming they fall short, the NDP and the Quebec Bloc will keep them in power, as they have for the last two terms.

11.55pm. The Conservatives continue to make modest gains: they’ve taken Newmarket-Aurora and Sudbury East-Manitoulin-Nickel Belt (both in Ontario) from the Liberals and they’re leading in Bloc-held Montmorency-Charlevoix (Quebec). They’re also now a few hundred votes ahead in one of the two Greens-held seats, Kitchener Centre (Ontario). It’s becoming more difficult to see a way to an actual Liberal majority, although I wouldn’t write off their chances just yet.

11.30pm. Reasonable numbers are now coming in from British Columbia, the third most populous province. It’s also the NDP’s strongest; they currently hold 13 of its 43 seats. At the moment they’re leading in only six of those, although the Conservatives are benefiting as much as the Liberals.

11.20pm. One of the few Conservative gains: CBC has called Vaughan-Woodbridge (Ontario), previously Liberal-held on a 2.9% margin. Meanwhile the Liberals have taken Châteauguay-Les Jardins-de-Napierville from the Quebec Bloc.

11.15pm. Elsewhere the NDP is in big trouble. It’s on track to being wiped out in Ontario, where it previously held four seats. It’s also behind in two of its three Manitoba seats, holding on only in Winnipeg Centre, while in Alberta it’s trailing badly in one of its two seats and leading by just four votes in the other.

11.05pm. Liberals also well ahead in Bloc-held La Prairie-Atateken, and more narrowly in Longueuil-Saint-Hubert and Shefford. Meanwhile the NDP is hanging on in its sole Quebec seat, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie.

11pm. Not called yet, but Liberals looking good in Beauport-Limoilou (Quebec), leading the Bloc incumbent by nine points with more than 10% counted.

10.50pm. An Ontario seat with a reasonable amount counted (about a third), Thunder Bay-Rainy River. Last time it was close to a three-way tie, Liberals 34.3%, Conservatives 29.3% and NDP 28.5%. The NDP vote has collapsed to 7.1%, leaving the Liberals ahead 48.5% to 42.4%. Last time there was also 6.6% for the far-right People’s Party, but they’re managing only 1.1%.

10.45pm. Counting is pretty slow, but what there is seems nearly all good for the Liberals. For example, Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation, one of the few seats that’s actually been called in Quebec. It was marginal Liberal; they won it by 6.4 points (i.e. a 3.2% margin) in 2021, but they’ve expanded that to more than thirty points, 54.8% to 23.4% for the Bloc.

10.35pm. CBC has now projected an overall Liberal win – meaning a plurality, not necessarily a majority. That seems a reasonable call to me; we’re just not seeing the sort of Conservative gains that they would need. I’d say a Liberal majority is very likely, but let’s wait for some more results out of Ontario and Quebec.

10.30pm. Some results from the prairie. The Liberals are ahead in a Conservative-held seat in Saskatchewan, Saskatoon-University, but that’s only on the basis of 44 votes counted. More seriously, they’re also ahead in NDP-held Churchill-Keewatinook Aski (Manitoba), but even that’s only a few hundred votes.

10.20pm. I spoke too soon about Atlantic Canada being done; the Liberals have hit the front in Central Nova, by almost a hundred votes with almost three-quarters counted.

10.15pm. CBC has now called South Shore-St. Margarets, the first definite Liberal gain. Some more serious numbers coming in from Ontario, with the Liberals ahead in Conservative-held Sault Ste. Marie-Algoma and NDP-held Kapuskasing-Timmins-Mushkegowuk, but the Conservatives leading in Liberal-held Sudbury East-Manitoulin-Nickel Belt.

10.10pm (Ontario/Quebec time, remember). And all the polls have now closed, with British Columbia bringing up the rear ten minutes ago. CBC’s summary table, based on who’s leading in each seat (some with only very small numbers counted), shows the Liberals with 120, Conservatives 85, Quebec Bloc 15 and NDP three, with another 120 yet to report any results. Looking to be on track for a Liberal majority, but it’ll be a while before we can be sure.

10.05pm. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has continued his (probably) unintentional advocacy for the Liberals right down to election day itself, with a social media post again calling for Canada to join the United States. Pierre Poilievre repudiated the endorsement (if that’s what it was), but there’s nothing he can do to counter the impression that he is the more Trumpy candidate.

9.55pm. The Liberals have now hit the front in another Bloc-held seat, Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine-Listuguj. Because it’s at the eastern end of the Gaspé Peninsula its polls closed at the same time as New Brunswick, so there’s more than a third of the vote counted, with the Liberals 115 votes ahead. They’re also leading (on much smaller numbers) in Bloc-held Beauharnois-Salaberry-Soulanges-Huntingdon and Saint-John and Conservative-held Bellechasse-Les Etchemins-Lévis. (Apologies for the ridiculously long names; I don’t know why Canada does this.)

9.50pm. Atlantic Canada now looking pretty stable at a net gain of two to the Conservatives, picking up Central Nova, Long Range Mountains and Terra Nova-The Peninsulas but losing South Shore-St. Margarets (although CBC has only called Long Range Mountains). Given that there were eight Liberal seats there with margins below 5%, that’s a pretty underwelming performance.

9.45pm. One seat in Saskatchewan has been called already: Battlefords-Lloydminster-Meadow Lake, an ultra-safe Conservative seat where they’ve so far got 84.5% of the vote.

9.40pm. Polls have now closed in Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and Saskatchewan, which between them elect more than three-quarters of the MPs. Not much in the way of results yet, but on early figures the Liberals are leading in at least three Quebec Bloc-held seats, Berthier-Maskinongé, Châteauguay-Les Jardins-de-Napierville and Les Pays-d’en-Haut.

9.25pm. Some signs of the collapse of the NDP vote: in St John’s East (Newfoundland) it’s down from 34.8% to 11.5%; Labrador 23.8% down to 7.1%; Halifax (Nova Scotia) 40.3% to 14.7%; Dartmouth-Cole Harbour (Nova Scotia) 33.0% to 8.6%. It looks to be in for a very bad night, which is also bad news for the Conservatives because ex-NDP voters will mostly migrate to the Liberals.

Five minutes until the polls close in most of the rest of the country.

9.15pm. They still haven’t called Terra Nova-The Peninsulas; the Conservatives lead by 623, 49.0% to 46.8%, with almost four-fifths counted. Last time the Liberals won it by nearly seven points.

9pm. The Liberals have now taken the lead for the first time in a Conservative-held seat, South Shore-St. Margarets in Nova Scotia. Only a two-point lead with about 60% counted, but further evidence that Conservative gains are going to be modest at best.

8.50pm. The results from the Atlantic provinces are now fairly well advanced. The Conservatives are leading in one Liberal-held seat in Nova Scotia, Central Nova, with almost a third of the vote counted. Incumbents are ahead in all the seats in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, including big Liberal leads in two of their marginals, Fredericton-Oromocto and Saint John-Kennebecasis.

8.40pm. CBC has now called Long Range Mountains for the Conservatives, and with about 60% counted they’re still holding a three-point lead in Terra Nova-The Peninsulas.

8.25pm. A reminder of what we’re looking for. There are 343 seats to be decided, of which the Liberals currently hold 157, the Conservatives 126 and the crossbench 60 (Quebec Bloc 34, NDP 24 and Greens two); all those totals have been adjusted for the redistribution. The polls suggest a collapse in the NDP vote, which in itself would probably be enough to deliver the Liberals a majority, even with no improvement vis-a-vis the Conservatives.

So the Conservatives need to make substantial gains to be within sight of a plurality, and for the last few weeks that’s looked unlikely. The CBC poll tracker estimates a 70% chance of a Liberal majority and a further 19% chance of a plurality without a majority. But the late movement has been in the Conservatives’ favor, so they’re not without hope.

8.00pm. Polls closed in the province of Newfoundland & Labrador an hour ago, and in the Atlantic provinces (New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island) half an hour later. You can check the official results here, and the CBC’s live coverage is here.

With some results in from 16 districts, the Liberals are leading in 13 of them. But that’s not very informative, because most of Atlantic Canada is Liberal to start with; the Conservatives are actually doing OK, having taken a healthy lead in two Liberal-held marginals in Newfoundland, Long Range Mountains and Terra Nova-The Peninsulas. But it’s early days yet.