Easter roundup, part 1

There’s been a fair bit happening in the electoral world, so it’s going to need a roundup in two parts, one before and one after the Easter break.

Senegal

We looked at Senegal a few weeks ago, when the presidential election that was supposed to be held on 25 February had been postponed by the outgoing president, Macky Sall, only for the postponement to be overturned by the constitutional court.

The election was rescheduled for last Sunday, and an amnesty led to the release of detainees, including opposition candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye. Polling seems to have proceeded smoothly; there were 19 candidates for president, but the only two who matter are Faye and the government’s candidate, former prime minister Amadou Ba.

Official results still show only a small fraction of votes counted (currently 0.4%), but unofficial tallies give Faye a big lead, and on Monday Ba called him to concede defeat. According to the BBC, Sall also “congratulated Mr Faye and said that it was a win for the people of Senegal.” It looks as if Senegalese democracy has survived its moment of doubt and continues to set a good example for the region.

Indonesia

Indonesia’s election, held on 14 February, was also clear at the time, with General Prabowo Subianto winning the presidency at his third attempt. But it takes a month for results to be official, so it was only last week that he was officially declared the victor with 58.6% of the vote. Anies Baswedan was a distant second on 24.9%, a gap of about 55 million votes, followed by Ganjar Pranowo on 16.5%.

Anies and Ganjar have both claimed fraud and promised to dispute the result, just as Prabowo did on the last two occasions, but there is no reason to think they will fare any better than he did. Prabowo and his running-mate, who happens to be the son of outgoing president Joko Widodo, will be sworn in on 20 October.

In the legislative election, the same parties won seats as in 2019, except that the United Development Party, with 3.9%, fell just short of the 4% threshold. The other eight are all back with similar levels of support to last time, so it will again be a fractured legislature: even the largest of them, the PDI-P, has only 16.7% of the vote and 109 of the 580 seats.

Vietnam

Vietnam is also getting a new president, following the resignation last week of Vo Van Thuong, in office for only just over a year. He was accused of unspecified “violations and shortcomings” in connection with an anti-corruption campaign that had also brought down his predecessor, Nguyen Xuan Phuc.

The presidency is mostly a ceremonial position, with real power held by the head of the Communist Party, Nguyen Phu Trong. Thuong was supposed to have been a close ally of his, but they have evidently had some sort of falling-out. Vice-president Vo Thi Anh Xuan again takes over as acting president until the national assembly chooses a replacement; last time this took about six weeks.

Slovakia

Slovakia’s president is also mostly a figurehead, but is chosen democratically. The first round of the election to replace retiring incumbent Zuzana Čaputová was held on SundaySaturday. There were 11 candidates, but all the interest was in just two: former prime minister Peter Pellegrini, representing Hlas-SD, a junior partner in Robert Fico’s authoritarian government, and former foreign minister Ivan Korčok, who is associated (as was Čaputová) with the liberal opposition.

Korčok came out ahead, but short of a majority: he has 42.5% to Pellegrini’s 37.0%, a gap of about 124,000 votes. (See official results here.) There was a big gap to Putinist Štefan Harabin on 11.7%, and the rest were all below 3%, with ethnic Hungarian Krisztián Forró the best of them on 2.9%.

A runoff between Korčok and Pellegrini will be held on 6 April. Hypothetical opinion polls consistently put Pellegrini in the lead, but since they overstated his vote in the first round and Korčok has the momentum of a decent lead, it could be a close race.

Ireland

Finally to a prime minister, not a president. Ireland is getting a new leader after the surprise resignation last week of prime minister and Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar. Fine Gael and its historic rival, Fianna Fáil, govern in coalition; Varadkar took the top job (for the second time) 15 months ago after Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin had taken the first turn in rotation.

Fine Gael quickly conducted a leadership election, in which higher education minister Simon Harris was the only candidate. He was duly confirmed as leader at the weekend, and he will be formally installed as prime minister when parliament resumes after Easter. That will make him, at 37, Ireland’s youngest-ever leader, a distinction previously held by Varadkar.

The coalition government (which also includes the Greens) has had a bit of a rocky road lately; it lost a referendum earlier this month on family questions (which probably had something to do with Varadkar’s resignation) and its combined vote is down about eight points in the polls from the 2020 election result. But it is still very much in a competitive position, and with the election not due until early next year there is time for Harris to make his mark.