Australia & New Zealand

We’ve noted before the way that Australian and New Zealand politics often move in tandem, but nonetheless it’s rare for them to both vote on the same day – the last time was in 2004, when Australia’s federal election coincided with nationwide local elections in New Zealand. But on Saturday it happens again, when Australia holds a referendum on recognising Indigenous people in its constitution, while New Zealand goes to the polls for its national election.

Let’s take the bigger country first. The “Voice” referendum has been behind in the polls since the middle of the year, and although there’s some evidence that the downward trend is levelling off it is clearly headed for a heavy defeat. It will most probably be in the neighborhood of 60-40, with “No” majorities in all states. For comparison, the last two referendum questions, in 1999 on a republic and a constitutional preamble, were defeated with “No” votes of 54.9% and 60.7%.

As with the republic, the likely result is that the issue will disappear from the political radar for some time. Australia’s Indigenous population will remain without any sort of constitutional recognition, and no doubt will also continue to trail the rest of the country in most measures of well-being – although the precise relationship between those two things is controversial.

Also as with the republic, and with other large-scale defeats, there is plenty of blame to go around. The primary responsibility, of course, lies with those who have campaigned for a “No” vote, particularly the Liberal Party and its leader, Peter Dutton. They are partly driven by the desire to inflict a defeat on the Labor government, but it would be a mistake to assume that they do not also believe the things they say, namely that Indigenous people do not deserve any special treatment. And even if they don’t, they are to some extent captive to their branch members and their ideological support crew at News Corp, who clearly do.

All this, however, was entirely predictable. Perhaps some refinement of the proposal or other quid pro quo could have brought Dutton on board at the start of the process; more likely not. But once that had clearly failed to happen, there was no point in pushing ahead with the referendum. Without bipartisan support it was doomed to defeat, and defeat was always going to be divisive and demoralising.

New Zealand, by contrast, gives an institutionalised place in public life to its (proportionately much larger) Indigenous population, although relations between the two communities are sometimes fraught. Tomorrow its Labour government is seeking a third term in office, and is unlikely to get it.

Labour won government unexpectedly in 2017 when its then-new leader Jacinda Ardern performed well at the election and then did a deal with the far-right party New Zealand First (NZF) to secure a majority. In office she won praise for her handling of the Covid pandemic, and at the subsequent election in 2020 Labour won a majority in its own right – the first since the introduction of proportional representation – with 50.0% of the vote and 65 of the 120 seats.

The opposition National Party was reduced to 25.6% of the vote and 33 seats. Only two other parties crossed the 5% threshold: the Greens with 7.9% and ten seats, who continued to support Labour even though they were no longer strictly needed, and the right-liberal ACT with 7.6% and also ten seats, its best ever result. NZF fell short with 2.6% and was eliminated from parliament; the Māori Party was further back with 1.2%, but victory in an electorate seat entitled it to two seats.

Ardern retired from the job last January, and Labour chose Chris Hipkins to replace her. He is the eighth person in the last eighty years to become prime minister mid-term, and every one of the others has lost the following election. If the polls are right, he is not going to be the one to break the curse: after a brief honeymoon period, Labour’s vote has been trending steadily downwards and is now in the high 20s, about ten points behind National.

The Greens and ACT are also set to return to parliament, both polling above their 2020 levels, and would be reliable partners for Labour and National respectively. But this time NZF may rejoin them: having been below the 5% mark until the middle of the year it has experienced a late surge and is now polling around 6%, which would probably win it eight or nine seats.

The NZF revival seems to have coincided with National leader Chris Luxon announcing that he was willing to work with it and its leader Winston Peters in a possible coalition, if only as a last resort. Since Labour and NZF had already ruled out co-operating with each other, it’s not clear why Luxon felt he needed to make the NZF option explicit. Rebekah Holt in Crikey likens Peters to a demonic presence, saying that Luxon had “ignored the advice of both his political elders, opponents and horror movie lore.”

Since Peters and ACT leader David Seymour are sworn enemies, the attempt to rely on both of them could be a recipe for chaos. That prospect, plus Luxon’s generally lacklustre campaigning, has given Labour a sniff of a chance, but the odds are still heavily against it: Sportsbet this afternoon is quoting 9-2 against a Labour government.