Thailand & Singapore

The places that I spent my July holiday in continue to produce interesting election news.

Firstly, Thailand: we looked at the situation there a couple of weeks ago, when Srettha Thavisin had just been confirmed as prime minister of a coalition government between Pheu Thai and a group of pro-military parties. It was obvious that this was connected with the simultaneous return from exile of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the founder of Pheu Thai.

The nature of the connection has now become clearer. Thaksin was sent to jail to complete an eight-year sentence for corruption and abuse of power, although he was soon transferred to hospital (indeed “to the luxury wing”, the BBC reports). He petitioned King Vajiralongkorn for a pardon, and in response his sentence has now been reduced to one year, in consideration of his age and state of health as well as his record of support for the monarchy.

No doubt he would have hoped for immediate release, but this seems like not a bad compromise; given the previous hostile relations between Thaksin and the military, it’s an impressive outbreak of realism on both sides. If the military and the royal establishment are willing to take the new relationship seriously, it’s possible the Srettha government could successfully combine the strengths of both, matching stability with genuine popular appeal.

But it’s all too easy to imagine the opposite outcome, in which Pheu Thai is compromised by its association with the military and loses support to the opposition Move Forward, but the latter is unable to prevail against the military’s veto. So while it’s too early to say (as the BBC does) that Thaksin has become “a much-diminished political figure,” his strategy certainly involves some risks.

The other news is from Singapore, where a presidential election held last Friday delivered victory, as expected, to the government’s preferred candidate, Tharman Shanmugaratnam. He won 70.4% of the vote, against 15.7% for Ng Kok Song and 13.9% for Tan Kin Lian, and will be sworn into office next week.

The president is a Westminster-style figurehead, so not too much should be read into the election. Often the position is uncontested (as it was last time, in 2017), but the previous contested election, in 2011, was very close, with Tony Tan beating Tan Cheng Bok by only 7,500 votes, 35.2% to 34.9%. (Voting is first-past-the-post; another two candidates, also both called Tan – Tan Kin Lian was one of them – shared the remainder.)

Candidates all run nominally as independents but, as is the way in Singapore, the ruling People’s Action Party has no difficulty in making its preference known. There is a widespread view that it uses the position to sideline people who might otherwise be contenders for real power – Tharman is a former deputy prime minister – but whom it regards as unsuitable. (Tharman, like his predecessor Halimah Yacob, is non-Chinese.)

The PAP’s succession planning is currently in some disarray, with prime minister Lee Hsien Loong still in office well past the date he had flagged for retirement and heir presumptive Lawrence Wong seen as rather a colorless administrator. But the hopes for democratic change that were entertained a decade or so ago have receded into the distance.