A snap Japanese election

In a surprise move on Tuesday night, Japan’s prime minister Shinzo Abe, only half-way through his four year term of office, announced that an early election would be held before the end of the year. The likely date is 14 December, less than four weeks away. He says he is seeking a renewed mandate for his economic policies (popularly known as “Abenomics”), including the postponement for 18 months of a planned increase in the consumption tax.

As always, the big issue in Japan is the economy, once seen as the wave of the future but chronically underperforming now for 20 years or more. Abe has bold plans, but results so far have been disappointing and the country officially slipped back into recession on Monday.

Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (a generally conservative party, despite its name) was elected in 2012 with a substantial majority – 294 of the 480 seats in the lower house, plus another 31 for its junior partner, the New Komeito Party. It’s hard to imagine that he can improve much on that, or that a few seats more or less will make any difference to the implementationof his policies.

But victory now would keep him in office for another four years. If Abe expects his policies to produce economic pain over the next couple of years, avoiding a 2016 election is a big plus. The risk, however, is that voters will realise what’s going on and decide they don’t want to give him a blank cheque.

In reality, though, they don’t have much alternative. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan (broadly centrist), elected with high hopes in 2009, fell apart once in office and has yet to recover: it’s recently been languishing in single digits in the opinion polls. The anti-government vote is split between it, the right-wing nationalist Innovation Party (formerly Restoration), the Communists and various smaller parties.

Moreover, even if people don’t vote for the LDP in great numbers, the electoral system, badly malapportioned, is quite capable of keeping it in power anyway. In 2012 it won a majority with only 27.8% of the vote, and in last year’s Senate election it won 47 of the 73 seats on offer with 42.7%.

A year ago the Japanese Supreme Court held that the 2012 election was unconstitutional, but it declined – as it has with previous such decisions – to invalidate the results. Subsequent reforms have improved matters a little, but it’s still estimated that some votes are worth twice as much as others. Following the prime minister’s announcement, a group of lawyers filed suit to try to stop the election.

There’s not much risk of that happening, but if the court gets really exasperated with the government’s failure to act it’s possible that it might subsequently overturn some or all of the results, creating a constitutional minefield. But electoral reform is difficult, since, as I said last year, “no-one really wants to tell rural voters that they are not as special as they think they are.”

2 thoughts on “A snap Japanese election

  1. Hi Charles,

    Thanks for the informative article.

    You quoted an article from The Asahi Shimbun which mentioned:

    However, the measures were not carried out because there was not enough time to redraw the electoral district boundaries.

    That meant the December Lower House election was held using the same boundaries as those for the 2009 Lower House election, which the Supreme Court had already ruled was held in a state of unconstitutionality.

    I take it that following the 2012 election, the government did not take any steps to redraw the boundaries? If that was the case, is it because this was something more likely to be done by the previous government and not by this one?

    Like

  2. Thanks Raaraa. There has been some change; according to this article five single-seat constituencies have been abolished, and Wikipedia says that boundaries in 17 prefectures (out of 47) have been redrawn. But clearly that doesn’t make a huge impact on the problem. In terms of its own interests, the previous government had more reason to implement reform, but it was too chaotic to achieve anything; Abe has more ability but less motivation, since the LDP is the main beneficiary from the present system.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.