Pundits have already installed the far-right National Rally as favorite for next year’s French presidential election. But on the evidence of the country’s municipal elections, concluded last Sunday (see my first round report here), its base in the cities is pretty thin. It failed to win control of any of France’s thirty biggest municipalities; Perpignan (number 32) is still its only mayoralty among the top fifty. (Official results are here; Le Monde has them on a nice colorful map.)
The far right did win control of Nice, France’s fifth-largest city, but that was not National Rally itself but its ally, Éric Ciotti. Ciotti was once head of the main centre-right party, the Republicans, but was evicted in 2024 after he endorsed co-operation with National Rally; he now heads his own party, the Union of the Right for the Republic (UDR), which aligns with the far right but stakes out a somewhat more pro-market position.
As you’d expect, the far right’s biggest strength is in rural areas and small towns, so the lack of success in the cities need not be fatal. And indeed president Emmanuel Macron won re-election in 2022 despite the fact that his party, now called Renaissance, then also governed only one of the fifty big cities (Tourcoing). But the dynamic for a centrist candidate is very different; Macron knew that one or both of the mainstream parties would end up supporting him in the runoff, so the need for a base of his own was less critical.
And for all the angst in French politics over the last couple of years, the overall picture at municipal level didn’t change much at all. Last time around, in 2020, the centre-left in one form or another won control of most major cities: 29 of the top 50 (16 Socialists, nine Greens, two Communists* and two miscellaneous). Almost all of the rest (19) went to the centre-right, leaving just the one centrist and one far right.
A few cities changed hands this time, but they mostly cancelled out. The centre-right finished with the same number as before, having gained six and lost six; the centre now has three, and with the far right’s single gain that leaves the left down three to 26 – although three of those are now with LFI rather than the centre-left. Apart from Nice, the largest city to switch was Bordeaux, which Renaissance won from the Greens.
A quick look at some of the largest cities gives an interesting window into the workings of a multi-party system (something that’s now of increased relevance in Australia). In Paris, the Socialist-led ticket led in the first round with 38.0%, followed by the Republicans on 25.5%, LFI 11.7%, the more centrist Horizons (which I generally group with the centre-right, although it is pro-Macron) 11.3% and the far right 10.4%.
For the second round, Horizons merged with the Republicans to form a combined centre-right ticket, and the far right also withdrew even though the centre-right refused an alliance with it. LFI, however, refused to withdraw and endorse the centre-left, since the latter would not offer it places on a combined ticket. But evidently many LFI voters didn’t want to take the risk of letting the right in; its vote fell to 8.0% and the centre-left prevailed comfortably with 41.5%.
Compare Marseille, where it was the right that was divided in the runoff. An independent-led centre-left ticket had 36.7% in the first round, narrowly ahead of the far right with 35.0%. The centre-right was well back on 12.4% and LFI 11.9%. There, because it was a matter of warding off the fascists, LFI agreed to withdraw from the second round. The centre-right stayed in, but many of its voters were apparently more worried about the left, since National Rally improved to 40.3% and the centre-right fell to 5.4%; the centre-left scored a comfortable victory with 54.3%.
Finally, consider Toulouse. The centre-right had a clear first-round lead with 37.2%; LFI was second with 27.6%, followed by the Socialist-led centre-left on 25.0%. No-one else qualified for the second round – the far right was back on 5.4%. For the second round, far left and centre-left reached an agreement to merge their two lists, but it seems that a lot of centre-left voters didn’t like the idea. The combined ticket managed only 46.1%, leaving the centre-right victors with 53.9%.
In Australia we have preference deals and coalitions rather than withdrawals and mergers, but the underlying logic is the same. Perhaps our parties could learn something by studying the reactions of their French counterparts and their voters.
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* The oddness of describing the Communists as centre-left is not lost on me, but in practice these days they form part of a more moderate bloc as distinct from the far-left LFI.
The World is Not Enough 