Three Asian elections

Three big elections are coming up in Asia, two on Sunday and the third next Thursday. Here’s a quick rundown on what to expect.

Thailand

Thailand votes on Sunday to choose a new House of Representatives, the previous one having survived for rather less than three years of its four year term. Its problem was that it was divided in roughly equal proportions between three political forces: the liberal Move Forward (now called the People’s Party), the populist Pheu Thai, and a group of conservative pro-military parties, of which Bhumjaithai and Palang Pracharat were the largest.

The first attempt at a government was a coalition between Move Forward and Pheu Thai, but it was blocked by the military-controlled Senate. Then an agreement was reached between Pheu Thai and the military; Pheu Thai’s Srettha Thavisin became prime minister, and when the constitutional court removed him in 2024 he was replaced by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of Pheu Thai boss Thaksin Shinawatra.

But Paetongtarn in turn was removed last year after the military withdrew its support due to her perceived unsoundness in the border conflict with Cambodia. The People’s Party then agreed to support a minority Bhumjaithai government on a temporary basis until an early election could be held. Thaksin was returned to jail, and Bhumjaithai promised to begin a process of constitutional revision, with a referendum being held in conjunction with the election.

Opinion polls show the People’s Party with a big lead, and since 400 of the 500 seats are elected from single-member constituencies (first-past-the-post), that’s likely to translate into a majority or very close to it. With the expiry of the transitional provisions the Senate is no longer entitled to vote on the prime minister, so there seems no legal barrier to the emergence of a People’s Party government.

But Thailand’s problem for many years has been the use of extra-legal means to defend the establishment’s interests, and the People’s Party will have to tread very carefully if that is not to happen again. As the BBC’s headline puts it, “winning the vote is only the first hurdle.”

Japan

Sunday’s other big election is in Japan. We looked at this a couple of weeks ago; new prime minister Sanae Takaichi is seeking a majority for her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in office since 2012 but dependent on unsteady alliances since the 2024 election. She decided to take the risk of going early while still in her honeymoon period.

The polls suggest that the gamble is likely to pay off, with the LDP headed for a majority in its own right. Its main rival is the Centrist Reform Alliance, a new ticket formed by a merger of the Constitutional Democratic Party (previously the main opposition party) and Komeito (previously the LDP’s long-term partner), but it is polling at only about half the LDP’s strength. Back in single digits are the other three serious contenders: the Democratic Party for the People (centrist), Ishin (right-wing, currently in alliance with the LDP) and Sanseito (far right).

Bangladesh

Bangladesh goes to the polls on Thursday, 12 February, in its first election since the overthrow of the government of Sheikh Hasina a year and a half ago. This will probably be the third-biggest election of the year, behind the United States and Brazil.

In the last election, held at the beginning of 2024, Hasina’s Awami Leage won a big majority by default after the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), boycotted the poll. As I said at the time, “with many of its leading figures in prison or in exile it was clearly correct to argue that the conditions for a fair election were not present.” But while rigging elections and jailing opponents works in the short term, it also prevents rulers from learning about the real state of public opinion until, perhaps, it is too late.

Insulating themselves from peaceful criticism, they eventually drive people to resort to force, and so it was in Bangladesh. A mass protest movement broke out in June of that year; a violent crackdown failed to quell the unrest, and at the beginning of August Hasina resigned and fled to India shortly before protesters stormed her residence. An interim government was appointed, headed by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, sharing power somewhat uneasily with president Mohammed Shahabuddin and army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman.

Since then, constitutional amendments have been drafted to try to guard against renewed authoritarianism (they will be put to referendum with the election), the Awami League has been suspended and Hasina has been sentenced to death in absentia for crimes against humanity. But many supporters of the protest movement, now represented by the National Citizen Party (NCP), are concerned that the promise of the 2024 revolution is not being met – especially in relation to the empowerment of women and young people.

The election is expected to be primarily a contest between the BNP, which is broadly centre-right, and a loose 11-party alliance, headed by the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami but also including the NCP. Voting is first-past-the-post in 300 single-member districts; those 300 then fill, by proportional representation, a further fifty seats reserved for women.