While we await further news on the fate of the Iranian theocracy, now engaged in a bloody struggle for survival, we can have a look at the fortunes of another regime of similar vintage. Uganda’s president Yoweri Museveni, in power since 1986, is up for re-election today, seeking another five-year term at the age of 81.
It should be said immediately that Museveni is not in the same class as Ayatollah Khamenei and his accomplices; his rule in Uganda has been reasonably benevolent and mostly free from gross human rights abuses, although he shares the Iranians’ eliminationist attitude to sexual minorities. But there is the same sense of a gerontocracy out of touch with a young population, and the same awareness that holding elections isn’t enough if there’s no real prospect of a change in power.
Today’s election is a rematch between Musaveni and the man he beat last time, Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, a singer known by his stage name, Bobi Wine. In the 2021 election, Wine was credited with 35.1% of the vote against Musaveni’s 58.4%. Another nine candidates collected the remaining 6.5%, about half of it with Patrick Amuriat from the Forum for Democratic Change.
Wine refused to accept the result, alleging widespread ballot stuffing. Whether or not he’s right about that, it’s clear that the election took place in a climate of intimidation and systematic unfairness, designed to load the dice heavily in Musaveni’s favor. And that’s pretty typical of elections in authoritarian states: even if the voting itself is clean, the overall circumstances make an opposition victory all but impossible.
This time, with Musaveni another five years older and public discontent increasing, there’s still no sign that the government intends to allow a genuine contest. Wine campaigns with the protection of a flak jacket and helmet; his supporters face violence and the risk of arrest, as well as selective internet blackouts – a tactic used in Iran as well. An aide to Musaveni was caught on video saying that the president would never accept defeat, although the head of the electoral commission promised that he would not be intimidated.
But Musaveni has a fine line to tread. The point of the election is to confer legitimacy on his continued rule; he needs the appearance of at least a minimal level of fairness, otherwise he risks inflaming opposition rather than pacifying it. Many leaders have seen their countries spiral into violence after claiming election victories with results that were simply not believable. And since authoritarian rulers are usually kept insulated from the real state of public opinion, it’s difficult to calibrate the optimal degree of fraud.
As I said last time, “If Museveni had respected term limits and retired in 2006 he would have secured an honorable place in Uganda’s history. Instead, like so many other autocratic leaders, he overstayed his welcome.” At the very least, he should be preparing the country for a transition to democratic politics upon his retirement, rather than – as is widely suspected – planning for the eventual succession of his son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
Polls close at midnight tonight, eastern Australian summer time, but I wouldn’t bother sitting up waiting for results. In the (very) unlikely event that no candidate passes the 50% mark, a runoff will be held within thirty days.
PS: Another dispiriting similarity with Iran should probably be noted: both this time and in 2021, all the presidential candidates are men.
The World is Not Enough 