Happy new year to all our readers! As democracy clings to life in many places, it’s time for a quick preview of what to expect this year in the electoral world. Only three G20 countries are scheduled to go to the polls (and one of those, Russia, is not a democracy), but there will be elections in a large number of middle-ranking powers, including several close to Australia.
Here are ten that I’ve picked out of particular interest; they’re in expected chronological order, but dates often change, so planning your travel around the electoral calendar is tricky. There’s also the possibility of unexpected early elections: Portugal and the Netherlands were examples last year, and it’s easy to imagine somewhere like Spain or Turkey going early this year.
Thailand (parliament, 8 February): An early election that we know about; when prime minister Anutin Charnvirakul took office in September he promised, as a condition of support from the People’s Party (formerly Move Forward), to dissolve parliament a year ahead of time. This will be the first election following the lapse of constitutional provisions that effectively gave the military a veto on the formation of a government. Neighboring Myanmar is also voting in a sham election.
Bangladesh (parliament, 12 February): The first election since the overthrow of the authoritarian government of Sheikh Hasina in 2024. She has subsequently been sentenced to death in absentia and her party, the Awami League, has been suspended, but an interesting contest is still expected between Islamists and more secular nationalists. Nepal also goes to the polls the following month.
Hungary (parliament, April): Authoritarian leader Viktor Orbán scored an unexpectedly big victory four years ago, but since then the political scene has been transformed by the rise of a new opposition party, TISZA, led by Péter Magyar. The system is heavily loaded in the government’s favor, but an opposition victory now seems a real possibility. Other elections in the region include Slovenia in March, Armenia in June and Bosnia in October.
Colombia (president, 31 May): Presidents cannot serve consecutive terms, so Colombia will be seeking a replacement for incumbent leftist Gustavo Petro, one of Donald Trump’s bêtes noires in the region. His ally Iván Cepeda is one of the front-runners, facing challengers from the right and centre. Legislative elections will take place beforehand, in March. Peru will also hold presidential and congressional elections, scheduled for April.
Zambia (president & parliament, 13 August): It looks like being a quieter year in Africa, but Zambia, where president Hakainde Hichilema won by defeating the incumbent in 2021, will be one of the more interesting contests. Uganda (January), Benin (April) and Ethiopia (June) are less likely to be exercises in democracy, but will still be worth watching.
Sweden (parliament, 13 September): Probably the most important election in western Europe for the year. The incumbent centre-right government depends on an understanding with the far right for its majority; voters will have the chance to say whether or not they approve of that arrangement. Neighboring Denmark also goes to the polls, probably in October.
Brazil (president & legislature, 4 October): One of the year’s biggest elections, and another case where Trump will take a major interest. In a disturbing echo of Joe Biden in 2024, leftist president Lula da Silva says he is seeking another term at the age of 80. His predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, has been disqualified and imprisoned, but his son Flávio is a likely challenger from the far right.
Israel (parliament, October?): An early election has been half-expected for at least the last two years, but far-right prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu apparently intends to go full term. As usual, his opponents represent a diverse and unruly bunch, ranging from those who differ in varying degrees with his policies to those who share his politics and have only personal differences. Neighboring Lebanon is expected to vote in April.
New Zealand (parliament, October): Centre-right prime minister Chris Luxon will be seeking a second term; the opinion polls currently indicate a close contest. Also in our region, Fiji will vote sometime in the second half of the year. The other one to note is the state of Victoria, whose election on 28 November will no doubt absorb the attention of many of our readers.
United States (legislature, 3 November): Trump’s term runs until 2029, but mid-term congressional elections offer the opportunity to severely curtail his power. While a Democrat victory in the House of Representatives seems all but assured, the Senate will be a much tighter battle. A number of state elections will also be of critical importance in terms of safeguarding the integrity of the 2028 election.
The World is Not Enough 