I’m trying to write something about Trump’s foreign policy, but that’s going to have to wait until tomorrow. In the meantime, updates on two European fronts.
First France, and the long-running quest for a parliamentary majority to support the government. Last time we looked, back in October, prime minister Sébastien Lecornu had just nominated a new ministry and was working on devising a budget that could get through parliament. He bought himself some time by agreeing to suspend the operation of the lowering of the pension age, a key demand of the Socialist Party.
But Socialist support wasn’t going to be enough on its own. If the rest of the left remained hostile, Lecornu would also need the support of the centre-right Republicans, or at least most of them. And with the Republicans, like their counterparts in many other countries, edging closer towards co-operation with the far right, that wasn’t going to be easy. He also promised that the budget would be put to an ordinary vote rather than treated as a matter of confidence under article 49.3.
Overnight, however, Lecornu had a big win, getting the first of the two main budget bills (for funding social welfare) through the National Assembly on a vote of 247 to 234, with 93 abstentions. His 247 votes consisted of 136 centrists, 63 Socialists, 18 Republicans, 20 from the non-aligned LIOT group, six independents, three Greens and a solitary Communist. Far right and far left voted solidly against him, but most of the others abstained, including the majority of the Republicans and Greens. Only three of the 49 Republicans actually voted against.
That’s a tribute to the success of Lecornu’s patient negotiations, as well as being a good omen for getting the rest of the budget passed in coming weeks. But 13 votes is an uncomfortably tight margin, and it’s hard to see it representing a sustainable governing majority. Nor is there much likelihood that this compromise outcome will be enough to see off France’s deep fiscal crisis.
The other news is from Czechia, which finally has a new government following its election two months ago. The populist ANO emerged then as the largest party, but well short of a majority with 80 of the 200 seats. Negotiations proceeded for a coalition with two rather different far-right parties: the SPD (traditional neo-fascist and pro-Russian) with 15 seats and the Motorists (free-market anti-environmentalist) with 13.
Getting them on board wasn’t the only problem. President Petr Pavel, who is aligned with the previous pro-western government, was also concerned about the multiple conflicts of interest held by ANO leader Andrej Babiš, a billionaire whose businesses cover a substantial part of the Czech economy. He was also clearly unhappy about some of Babiš’s potential partners, including the prospect of the Motorists’ Filip Turek, a former racing driver, becoming environment minister.
But all has now been settled more or less amicably. Babiš has agreed to put his business holdings into a blind trust, Turek stood aside on the grounds of ill health, and the SPD nominated nominally non-partisan experts to fill its three cabinet spots. So Babiš will preside over a three-party coalition, with Motorists leader Petr Macinka as foreign minister, retired general Jaromír Zůna as defence minister and ANO loyalists in most of the other key positions.
There’s no doubt that Babiš’s new allies are very unsavory people, who moreover will pull the government in different directions on the question of the Ukraine war. But neither of them has much in the way of other options, and Babiš, who is very much used to getting his own way, is not likely to leave them in any doubt as to who’s in charge.
The World is Not Enough 