A quick update on last week’s two big elections, each decisive in its way.
First the mid-term legislative election in Argentina, previewed here. It was a vital test for the administration of president Javier Milei, and he passed with flying colors. Opinion polls had indicated that Milei’s ticket, Liberty Advances, was running neck and neck with its main opponent, the Peronist coalition called Homeland Force. But it finished seven points clear, 40.6% to 33.6%.
That’s not enough for a majority in its own right; Milei will still have to negotiate with other parties to get legislation through, but his position has greatly improved. His supporters will now have 113 deputies out of 257 in the lower house (up 26) and 24 of the 72 senators (up 11), and among them his own party will be much stronger vis-a-vis the traditional centre-right. (Official results are here, but not only are they in Spanish, they also don’t aggregate the numbers; you’re probably better off with the summary at the Spanish-language Wikipedia.)
The opposition Peronists have held their ground reasonably well, dropping six Senate seats but picking up one in the lower house. The big losers are the middle group, collectively known as dialoguistas, who have been reduced to 41 seats in the lower house and twenty in the upper.
Media commentary paints the result as a win for Trumpism, and there’s no doubt that Milei benefited from Trump’s support, with an American rescue package for Argentina’s currency announced in the week before the election. But it’s also important to remember that there are major differences between the two men: no doubt Trump is happy to have an ally in South America, but he shows no sign of imitating Milei’s attachment to the free market.
Whether or not Argentina was a boost for Trump, in the Netherlands there was no doubt at all. Its election on Thursday (see my preview here) was a major defeat for the Trumpist worldview. Far-right leader Geert Wilders, who had forced the early election by breaking up the previous government, saw his party’s support drop by almost seven points to 16.7%. The left-liberal D66 was the big winner, more than doubling its vote and just edging out Wilders’s PVV to claim first place with 16.9%, a lead of about 28,000 votes. (Official results here.)
The battle for first place is of mostly just psychological value, although that doesn’t mean it’s unimportant. The mainstream parties, including those that got their fingers burnt last time, had all indicated beforehand that they would not work with Wilders, and it was always likely that they would win a substantial majority. But it’s bigger than expected: D66, the VVD (right-liberal), the Green-Labor alliance and the Christian Democrats will have 86 of the 150 seats between them (up 23), plus a few more for smaller non-extreme parties.
They will now attempt to put together a coalition, with D66 leader Rob Jetten as the likely prime minister. In opposition will be the PVV with 26 seats (down 11) and its three far-right allies with another twenty (up nine). Exiting parliament altogether is the New Social Contract, a breakaway from the Christian Democrats, which won twenty seats last time but crashed to just 0.4% after going into coalition with the far right. Clearly its voters did not approve.
The World is Not Enough 