Trump, Putin & Netanyahu

When Donald Trump returned to office in January, the headlines were dominated by two wars: the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the Israeli assault on Gaza. In pursuit of his self-image as a peacemaker, not to mention the much-desired Nobel prize, they were the two obvious targets.

Let’s note up front that there is a moral asymmetry between the two. Russia’s invasion was unprovoked, whereas Israel was responding to the Hamas terror attack of two years ago. But Trump seems to think (quite wrongly) that Ukraine was also at least partly responsible for being invaded, so that difference doesn’t worry him. And in any case, Israel’s response has been so grotesquely disproportionate that the asymmetry has rather faded.

Trump tried first with Ukraine. His strategy was to offer Vladimir Putin most of what he wanted – the end of sanctions, recognition as a world statesman and retention of some large but unspecified fraction of his territorial conquests – in return for ending the war and recognising Ukrainian independence (which would, again in some unspecified way, be guaranteed by the United States).

Putin said no. His reasoning is not entirely clear (partly due to the uncertainty as to what he was being offered), but in July he turned down Trump’s proposal for a ceasefire, and personal talks a month later failed to break the deadlock. Trump in response pivoted a fortnight ago to a quite strongly pro-Ukrainian position, although how long this will last is anyone’s guess.

Meanwhile, Trump has interested himself more in the Middle East. Following on from his success in shutting down the Iran-Israel conflict, last week he offered Benjamin Netanyahu much the same sort of deal that he had offered Putin: recognition of his military victory accompanied by most, but far from all, of his political objectives. Unlike Putin, Netanyahu said yes.

The difference, of course, is due to the enormously greater leverage that the US has over Israel as compared to Russia. Trump can bluster against Putin, but Russia remains, if not quite a great power, at least a major independent military force. Israel, on the other hand, depends heavily on American protection and must ultimately dance to the American tune – a power that previous presidents have been reluctant to exercise. And Netanyahu, unlike Putin, has his own electorate to worry about; the prospect of peace and the return of hostages is popular in Israel.

But the situations are otherwise very similar. Neither Putin nor Netanyahu wants to admit to his real goals: respectively, the destruction of Ukrainian independence and the removal of the Palestinians from Gaza (and ultimately the West Bank as well). For Netanyahu, a plan under which Gaza remains full of Palestinians falls far short, just as gaining the Donbas but preserving an independent Ukraine would for Putin.

Because Putin said no, Trump never had to actually face the problem of getting the Ukrainians to sign up to a peace negotiated over their heads. It wouldn’t have been easy. But he now has exactly that problem with Hamas, who seemed to have learnt from Ukraine that a combination of flattery and calculated ambiguity can do a lot to bring Trump on side. Negotiations are continuing, but there seems a strong possibility that the deal will hold up, the hostages will come home and the war will end, at least for the time being.

It’s not a great deal for Hamas, or for the Palestinians that it so badly governs – probably worse than the poor deal that Trump would have offered Ukraine. But when you’ve been steamrollered as badly as the Gazans have by Israel, you take what you can get. In fact it’s not very different from what’s been on the table for at least the last twelve months, but which Israel has never previously been willing to accept.

From Netanyahu’s point of view this is all deeply unsatisfactory. As Ronny Sasmita at Middle East Monitor puts it, he “has accepted the deal less out of conviction than out of necessity, compelled by American pressure, regional dynamics, and his own weakening position at home.” Most of all, he has been forced to give up the dream of annexing Gaza and expelling its inhabitants; all he has left is the hope that Trump, having (by his lights) double-crossed him, will in turn duly double-cross the Palestinians.

At the weekend, Axios reported Trump saying to Netanyahu “I don’t know why you’re always so f*cking negative. This is a win. Take it.” He may not use the same language to Putin, for whom he clearly has a great deal more respect, but the basic message is the same: he thinks, wrongly, that he’s offered both men what they want, and can’t understand why they’re so ungrateful.

As I’ve been saying for a long time, many observers are deeply resistant to seeing the fundamental similarity between Putin and Netanyahu, not least the mainstream Republicans whose support Trump still needs. They care a great deal about Israel but are much less invested in Russia. But as we noted earlier this year, “Netanyahu has become a sort of gateway drug for Putinism,” and Trump has now demonstrated that that cuts both ways.