Czechia’s pro-western government did a bit better than expected in Saturday’s election, but not well enough to retain office. (See my preview here.) The centre-right ticket Spolu finished with 23.4% of the vote (down 4.4% on its 2021 performance) and 52 of the 200 seats (down 19), and its previous partners accounted for another 40 seats: 22 from 11.2% for STAN (mayors and independents) and 18 seats from 9.0% for the Pirate Party, up 4.6% and three seats from their combined result last time. (Official results here.)
With a combined total of 92 seats the pro-western forces are therefore ahead of their main opponent, Andrej Babiš’s ANO, which collected 34.5% (up 7.4%) and 80 seats (up eight). But the balance of power is held by two far-right parties, the neo-fascist and pro-Russian SPD with 7.8% and 15 seats (down 1.8% and five seats), and the Motorists, a new Eurosceptic and climate denialist party, with 6.8% and 13 seats. Missing out was another pro-Russian ticket, the far-left Stačilo!, which with 4.3% fell short of the 5% threshold. Turnout was 68.9%, up 3.6% on 2021.
Prime minister Petr Fiala conceded defeat and congratulated Babiš; Babiš in turn announced that he intended to form a minority government, hoping for support on matters of confidence from SPD and Motorists. But the latter have both said that they want to participate in government, so the plan now is for a three-party coalition – not an easy task, since SPD and the Motorists will pull in opposite directions on the question of support for Ukraine, Both, however, seem to regard Babiš as the lesser evil.
Babiš, who was previously prime minister from 2017 to 2021, is a controversial figure, to put it mildly. He is one of the country’s richest men and has been constantly plagued by allegations of corruption and conflicts of interest. His politics has never shown any great ideological consistency – “populist” is the unavoidable description, although not in the (sadly common) sense that makes it merely a euphemism for “far right”.
Europe’s Putinists profess to believe that Babiš is now one of them, and from their point of view he is certainly preferable to the very pro-European Fiala. But although he appears to have drifted rightwards, he maintains that he is still committed to membership of NATO and the European Union, and his occasional sympathy with Russia didn’t prevent him from expelling several dozen Russian diplomats back in 2021.
He is also 71, but these days that doesn’t seem to be much of a barrier; he’s still younger than Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. If he can wrestle his potential partners into line, he will have four years to implement his vision of Czechia’s future, whatever that might be.
The World is Not Enough 