The final act of the Tasmanian state election was played out yesterday, when the Labor opposition moved a motion of no confidence in the Liberal government of Jeremy Rockliff, just as it had back in June. But whereas that time it had succeeded, precipitating the July election, this time it was defeated, by the very clear margin of 24 to ten. Labor’s ten MPs were the only votes in favor; the crossbench – consisting of five Greens, a Shooter and five independents – voted unanimously against.
So Rockliff will stay in office for the foreseeable future. Most of the crossbenchers insisted that their vote was not an expression of confidence in him and reserved their right to change their minds, but in practical terms it would be impossible for them to do so in the short term unless Rockliff does something very foolish. And that he shows no sign of doing; for the last two months he has played his cards well.
It puts Tasmania back in much the same situation as in 1996. Then the Liberal government of Ray Groom lost its majority and was reduced to 16 seats as against 14 Labor, four Greens and an independent. The Greens were willing to deal with Labor (as they had in 1989-92), but both major parties had promised not to rely on Green support. Labor stuck doggedly to that promise, but the Liberals, following the resignation of Groom and his replacement by Tony Rundle, reached an understanding with the Greens and governed accordingly for the next two and a half years.
But something big has changed since then. In the 1990s, nearly everyone voted for one of the three main parties: Liberal and Labor routinely had 80% or more of the vote between them, with the Greens in the low teens. It was not unrealistic for Liberal or Labor leaders to aim at majority government – which Labor went on to achieve in 1998, as the Liberals later did in 2014 – and therefore to try to shut out the Greens.
Now, however, the major-party vote is down to 66.4%: for one of the two to win a majority is a mammoth task. And rather less than half of the remainder is with the Greens: they are still the most important player on the crossbench, but they no longer dominate it. Putting together a majority has become a much more complex affair, one obviously requiring some skills at negotiation and compromise.
Yet this fact seems to have entirely escaped the ALP. Its leader, Dean Winter, steadfastly refused any negotiation with the Greens, and while he was at least willing to talk to the independents he doesn’t seem to have offered them much. He gave every appearance of still living in a world in which majority government was just around the corner. But that world has gone.
The Liberals have been more realistic: they have made genuine policy concessions, and they supported a Greens MP to become deputy speaker. It might not be a “deal” in the formal sense, but both Greens and independents have decided they can live with a Liberal government, given that the Labor alternative seemed set on taking them for granted.
Although he didn’t seem to realise it, the outcome, taken in conjunction with his failure to try to form government after the first no-confidence motion in June, made Winter’s position untenable. And sure enough, a marathon meeting of the ALP caucus today has resulted in a leadership change, with the left’s Josh Willie taking on the task of trying to rebuild the party’s credibility – with both the crossbench and the voters.
The World is Not Enough 