Taiwan doesn’t recall

Just last month, commenting on Poland’s presidential election, I suggested that the result might represent a desire for balance at the top rather than an actual preference for the far right. For Polish voters, I said, “the idea of weakening government by keeping it divided might not seem foolish at all.” Now we have another example, in Taiwan.

Poland’s presidency is mostly ceremonial, but Taiwan has full separation of powers, with the president as head of the executive. To be fully effective, however, they need a majority in the legislature, and although William Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won last year’s presidential election, he only had about 40% of the vote, so it was no surprise that his party failed to win a majority in the legislative election held the same day.

The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) became the largest party in the legislature with 52 seats, as against 51 for the DPP, eight for the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and two independents. Over the succeeding year the KMT and TPP co-operated to frustrate the government’s program and to pass hostile legislation that strengthened the power of the legislature and of (mostly KMT-controlled) local governments.

Lai and his party portrayed the opposition as a subversive element serving the interests of mainland China, and a campaign was launched to have KMT legislators recalled in the hope that by-elections would yield a DPP majority. A total of 31 petitions garnered the required number of signatures, and the first 24 of the recall referenda were held on Saturday (the other seven are scheduled for 23 August).

But voters did not appreciate being asked to change their minds so soon, and all of the recall votes were unsuccessful. A few were close – Yeh Yuan-chih came closest, with 48.6% voting to recall him – but most didn’t get much above 40%. The DPP conceded defeat, although some of its supporters were less than gracious, with one blaming “Beijing’s pervasive influence” for the result.

It’s true that the KMT has moved closer to China in recent years, perhaps driven by being out of office since 2016, but there’s no sign that the majority of its leaders or supporters actually wish to sell out Taiwanese independence (although they are more willing than the DPP to maintain the fiction of “one China”). Rather than a wish for reunification, the electorate’s verdict can be more readily seen as a vote to maintain balance in government and step away from extreme measures.

It also has to be remembered that these were KMT seats to start with, so it’s not as if the results represent a swing against the DPP. On the contrary, the fact that it was able to mobilise so much support to get recall petitions going in the first place suggests that its message resonates with a large part of the public.

But in dangerous times for the region, both sides might be better advised to dial down some of the political tension and try to build some sort of consensus for the defence of their country.