Election preview: Tasmania, again

Tasmania goes to the polls tomorrow, not quite 16 months after the last occasion – making it the earliest state election in my lifetime (Queensland 1957 is the most recent earlier one). As I reported at the time, the Liberal government of Jeremy Rockliff was defeated last month on a vote of confidence, and since the Labor opposition refused to attempt to form a government, a fresh election was the result.

There are two aspects to this election, the big picture and the detail. The latter is complex and uncertain; the former is reasonably clear and fundamentally simple.

Not too long ago, Tasmanian elections were simple all round. Labor, the Liberals and the Greens won all the seats between them, and in the era when the size of parliament was reduced to 25 seats (from 1998 to 2021) they weren’t difficult to pick. In 2006 the result was completely unchanged from four years earlier, and in 2010 every electorate split the same way, 2-2-1.

But then things got more complicated. In 2021 an independent snatched a seat for the first time in a generation, and for the following election the parliament was returned to 35 seats (seven in each electorate). The result in 2024 was a dog’s breakfast of a parliament, with 14 Liberals, ten Labor, five Greens, three Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) and three independents. With Labor set against co-operation with the Greens, the Liberals remained in government at the sufferance of JLN and the independents.

Since then, JLN (which is basically populist-centrist) has disintegrated but its former three MPs are all seeking re-election, one of them as an independent and two with the National Party, making its first foray in the state since 2014. Its only competitor for the hard right vote is the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers, who managed 2.3% last time; One Nation contested the Senate in Tasmania earlier this year, winning a credible 5.2% of the vote, but has chosen not to try its luck at state level.

So with five parties plus numerous independents in the mix, the final seat in most electorates will be something of a lottery. Kevin Bonham, whose assessment of the opinion polls is essential reading, suggests that they are pointing to a result something like 13 Liberal, 12 Labor, six Greens and four independents. Allowing for the disappearance of JLN that’s not much change from last time – which should be no surprise, since it was only last year.

In terms of the big picture, however, the last few seats don’t really matter. What matters is that neither of the major parties is going to be anywhere near the 18 seats required for a majority, and that a substantial part (probably at least half) of the crossbench is going to consist of the Greens. That means that if both parties are going to make a serious attempt to form a minority government, Labor starts with a big advantage because the Greens will support it with only minimal conditions.

Labor could have tried to form such a government last year, and it could have tried again last month. It was held back both times by its phobia of the Greens, but also presumably by a feeling that the time was not yet quite right. On the second occasion it would have been influenced by the fact that it had done so well in the state in this year’s federal election, beating the Liberals by 12 points; it seemed to have little to fear from going to the polls.

But the signs are that the voters don’t quite see it the same way, with Labor looking at only a modest swing from last year. Perhaps they blame it for the early election; whatever the cause, if Labor leader Dean Winter passes up the chance a third time, it is not likely to come again.

For much more detail on the election, check out the guides by William Bowe, Ben Raue and the ABC. All should have live results or commentary tomorrow night, from about 7pm eastern Australian time (9am Greenwich).