Two governments fall

The Dutch were the first Europeans to visit Tasmania, in the person of Abel Tasman (after whom it was later named) in 1642. But they never attempted to settle the island or to do much to advance their territorial claim. Centuries later, however, some fellow-feeling between the two places seems to persist, since both last week saw their governments fall due to losing their parliamentary majority.

The Netherlands is the more straightforward case. Readers will probably remember that at its last election, held about eighteen months ago, veteran far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom (PVV) surprised observers by winning the largest share of seats. After prolonged negotiations Wilders gave up his claim to lead the government and a coalition was formed between the PVV and three other parties, with an independent, Dick Schoof, as prime minister.

Anyone who knew much about Wilders, or about European far-right politics in general, could see that this wouldn’t last. People like Wilders base their appeal on being outsiders; once they become insiders, their support tends to drop away. Sure enough, PVV’s polling, which had gone above 30% in the period of post-election euphoria, started to fall back to earth and was soon back below the 23.5% that it won in 2023.

Wilders decided he needed to do something, so he demanded that his coalition partners sign up to a new charter of anti-immigrant measures, and when they predictably demurred he announced that his party was leaving the government. Schoof then tendered the government’s resignation, but he and the other parties will stay on in a caretaker capacity until a fresh election is held, scheduled for 29 October.

Schoof could have sought other partners and tried to carry on, but as last year’s negotiations showed, putting together a government without the PVV is tricky. Better to let the voters take out some anger on Wilders for forcing an early election – unless he can use the four month interval to come with a convincing explanation for why it was necessary.

Tasmania’s government, under Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff, didn’t even have a majority to start with; having called an early election in March of last year because he had lost his majority, he then went backwards. The Liberals finished with 14 of the 35 seats, as against ten Labor, five Greens, three from the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) and three independents.

But Rockliff stayed in government because his opponents were unwilling to combine against him. Confidence-and-supply arrangements with JLN and one (or possibly two) of the independents gave him some theoretical security, but it was a precarious position, made worse when two of the three JLN MPs left the party to sit as independents.

Finally last week it all came to grief when Labor leader Dean Winter moved a motion of no confidence. Such motions aren’t often carried in Australia – federally the last one was nearly fifty years ago – but the Greens had been trying to bring down the government for some time. Now Labor, after a strong performance in the state at last month’s federal election, fancied its chances as well.

After two days of debate, the motion was tied 17-all, with the JLN MP and two of the original three independents supporting it, and the third independent and the two ex-JLN MPs opposed. Labor speaker Michelle O’Byrne then used her casting vote in favor, which in most Westminster systems would be a breach of convention. But Tasmania has always been more concerned to preserve proportionality in parliament, and the government knew it was taking that risk when it supported her election as speaker to improve its numbers on the floor of the house.

Rockliff then went to the governor to request an election. In Britain, a prime minister in that position would be entitled to an election as of right, but in Australia the position is more complicated; if a government is still (like this one) in the early part of its term and there is an alternative majority available, governors and governors-general have refused election requests and instead commissioned someone who could command a majority.

Governor Barbara Baker therefore sent for Winter and presumably asked him if he could form a government. Since he adheres to Labor’s (hopelessly unrealistic) line of not dealing with the Greens, he was obliged to say no: he wants an election too. So Rockliff, like Schoot in the Netherlands, remains in office on a caretaker basis and on Wednesday evening the election was announced for 19 July, in five weeks time – the earliest available date.

Unlike the Netherlands, Tasmania so far faces no serious threat from the far right; One Nation managed only 5.2% of the vote there for the Senate last month. Unlike Tasmania, the Netherlands is not hamstrung by politicians who refuse to deal with the realities of proportional representation; compromise and consensus are the order of the day there, perhaps excessively so.

But both have ended in the position of asking the voters to have another try.