Romania tries again

Australia’s isn’t the only big election this weekend. Romania goes to the polls on Sunday for the first round of its presidential election, for the second time. The first attempt was five months ago – you can read my report on it here – but a lot has happened in Romania since then.

Pro-Russian independent Călin Georgescu came out of nowhere to lead that vote with 22.9% against twelve opponents, among whom liberal Elena Lasconi did best with 19.2% and was set to face him in the runoff. But two days before it was due to take place the constitutional court annulled the result due to alleged Russian interference. Georgescu was subsequently arrested and charged with complicity in that interference and was barred from standing in the re-run election.

Georgescu’s disqualification, of course, was controversial. Far-right leaders around the world were energised, including United States vice-president J.D. Vance. But many democrats were understandably concerned as well, including Lasconi herself, who criticised the decision. Elections, of course, have been annulled before for various irregularities (some readers may remember the Austrian presidential election of 2016), but disqualifying the first-round leader is a drastic step.

But it wasn’t as if Georgescu’s political current wouldn’t be represented. He endorsed George Simion, leader of the far-right party AUR, who is now leading in the opinion polls and seems assured of reaching the second round, to be held two weeks later. The hopes of Romanian democracy will rest on whoever his opponent is, with three candidates closely matched: Crin Antonescu, Nicușor Dan and Victor Ponta. Lasconi this time is languishing well back in fifth place.

All three are nominally independents, but Antonescu is the candidate of the establishment parties, the Social Democrats and the National Liberals, which between them won 27.9% in the November vote. Dan, who is mayor of Bucharest, is more of a reformist and attracts support from a broad range of groups, including many who would otherwise support Lasconi’s party, USR. Ponta is a former Social Democrat prime minister who was forced out due to allegations of corruption and basically represents the nationalist or Eurosceptic wing of the centre-left.

Many pro-Europeans feared that the runoff would end up pitting Simion against Ponta; that now looks less likely, although Lasconi has not helped matters by refusing to withdraw. Antonescu and Dan are running neck and neck in the polls, generally in the low 20s, perhaps eight or ten points behind Simion. Hypothetical polls of the second round, always to be treated with caution, show Antonescu mostly beating Simion but Dan and Simion more evenly matched.

If Simion were to win the runoff he would still have to work with the current parliament, elected last December, in which the far right holds only 115 of the 331 lower house seats – power is shared between president and prime minister on roughly the French model. The government is a coalition between Social Democrats, National Liberals and the ethnic Hungarian party, with USR sitting on the crossbench.

To what extent they would be willing to work with a far-right president is not clear. Tension between president and parliament has been a regular feature of Romania’s recent history, but Simion does not seem the sort who would readily compromise. Nor is it clear that voters would be deterred from voting for him by the prospect of deadlock; they often seem keen to preserve a balance between the two institutions.

Plus of course there’s the unanswered question of exactly what the Russians were up to last time and whether they will again play a role. Although Simion opposes aid to Ukraine he is not pro-Russian in the strong sense that Georgescu was; he says he is committed to keeping Romania in the European Union. But at the very least he would be another complication on the EU’s already troubled south-eastern frontier.