France’s Socialists come on board – sort of

It’s a couple of months since we looked at France: at the time, veteran centrist François Bayrou had just been appointed prime minister, after his predecessor, Michel Barnier, had been ousted on a vote of no-confidence. Barnier had only lasted 99 days in the job, making him the shortest-serving prime minister since the chaotic days of the fourth republic. Bayrou has not yet passed that mark, but his prospects are starting to look reasonable.

The big achievement has been the passage of a budget. As expected, Bayrou staked the government’s survival on it, treating it as a matter of confidence under article 49.3 of the French constitution (I explained the process a couple of years ago here). But he had prepared the ground carefully beforehand, engaging in discussions with the various opposition groups – and especially with the Socialist Party, which he particularly wanted to win over.

That didn’t always go smoothly, especially when Bayrou let slip in an interview the thought that there was the prospect of a “flooding” (submersion) of France with immigrants, an unacceptable metaphor from the left’s point of view. But he persevered, and eventually the Socialists agreed that they would support him over the budget, while moving a separate censure motion over immigration: which they knew would not succeed, because the far right would never support it.

With the Socialists and the centre-right on board, plus some of the non-aligned MPs (in the end he got all of them), Bayrou’s survival for the time being was assured. And once that was the case, the far-right National Rally also decided to back him. Better, from its point of view, to get some of the credit, and hope that the idea that the government is being propped up by the far right (even if fundamentally untrue) will poison its relationship with the left.

The left, meanwhile, was split, with the alliance that has held since last year’s election – the New Popular Front – finally coming apart. All but one of the Socialist MPs supported Bayrou; those from Unsubmissive France (LFI) all voted against him, as did all but a handful of the Greens and Communists. On the final vote, on Wednesday, the opposition mustered just 121 votes, less than half of the 289 needed for a majority.*

So France at least has a budget, which was badly needed, and Bayrou has some breathing space to work on the rest of his agenda. But his position remains precarious. The Socialists will not keep supporting him indefinitely unless he gives some ground to them in policy terms, and it will be difficult to do that while retaining the support of the centre-right. And if he loses the centre-right, then he will need not just the Socialists but the Greens and Communists as well.

It might work. In June a fresh election becomes a possibility (twelve months after the last one), and while it’s hard to imagine that president Emmanuel Macron will be attracted by that option, the threat may help to keep some of the MPs in line. And perhaps the accumulation of bad news from across the Atlantic might impress on the friends of democracy the need to stick together.

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* Since an absolute majority is needed, only the votes in favor are tabulated; there is no difference between supporting the government and abstaining.