Happy new year to everyone! After the election overload of 2024 (reviewed last week), 2025 is going to be a quieter time, but there’s still quite a bit on. Four G20 countries will go to the polls, as will a number of middle-ranking powers. And additional early elections are always a possibility; France and Japan were the big ones last year, and France could easily be on the agenda again.
So here’s my list of the top ten expected elections for the year – at least roughly in chronological order, although at this stage most of the dates are only approximate. After a bad year for incumbents last year, we wait to see whether or not voter anger has abated.
Germany (parliament, 23 February): originally not scheduled till late in the year, the German election was brought forward following the collapse of the governing coalition. Prime minister Olaf Scholz starts as the underdog but his position is not hopeless.
Romania (president, April?): the first round was held in November, but the election was then annulled just before the runoff due to concerns about Russian interference in support of the far right. Now the whole thing is to be rerun, probably in March or April.
Australia (parliament, May?): this one will absorb most of the local attention, as Anthony Albanese’s Labor government seeks a second term. It hasn’t been travelling well in the polls and a hung parliament is a distinct possibility.
Singapore (parliament, June/July?): not really a democratic election, but with a relatively poor performance by the government last time and the subsequent transition to a new prime minister, Lawrence Wong, it will be interesting to see if the opposition can make further inroads.
Bangladesh (parliament, ?): following the revolution last year that toppled the autocratic government of Sheikh Hasina, fresh elections are expected to be held in the second half of the year. It’s otherwise a relatively quiet year in Asia, although the Philippine election in May will also be worth watching.
Canada (parliament, 20 October): the Liberal government of Justin Trudeau, in office since 2015 (although mostly without a parliamentary majority), appears headed for defeat, with the opposition Conservatives riding high in the polls.
Argentina (legislature, 26 October): mid-term legislative elections will be a major test for the administration of “libertarian” president Javier Milei, whose term runs until 2027. So far he has mostly made a success of the job, and he will now be hoping to win a more sympathetic legislature.
Tanzania (president & parliament, October?): it’s a fairly quiet year in Africa as well, but it will be interesting to see if the death since the last election of Tanzanian president John Magufuli has produced any liberalisation. Other elections of note on the continent include Gabon (August), Malawi (September) and Ivory Coast (October).
Czechia (parliament, October?): centre-right prime minister Petr Fiala will be seeking re-election and hoping that 2024’s movement against incumbents has spent its force. Other European elections of interest include Albania (May), Moldova (June/July) and Norway (September).
Chile (president & legislature, 16 November): presidents cannot serve consecutive terms, so left-wing incumbent Gabriel Boric is retiring; his party may have trouble staving off a challenge from far-right contender José Antonio Kast, whom Boric defeated in 2021. It’s a big year in South America, with Ecuador (February) and Bolivia (August) also going to the polls.
The World is Not Enough 