2024 in review

So another year draws to a close – one that will go down in history as the biggest ever year for elections. Even if democracy survives, it will be a long time before as many people vote in the space of the same calendar year. Eleven of the G20 members went to the polls (which really means 11 out of 18, since China and Saudi Arabia don’t hold elections), so that even if you discount Russia as being not a real contest, you can compile a top ten from them alone.

Voting isn’t everything, and even a surfeit of elections does not necessarily show democracy to be in good shape. But this year the voters fought back. Almost every incumbent government lost ground at the polls; not all were defeated, but those that survived had their wings clipped, with some being forced into uncomfortable coalitions.

The carnage had no particular ideological bent: governments of left and right suffered about equally. Some of the new leaders are no great friends to democracy, most obviously Donald Trump in the United States. Nonetheless, the ability to hold governments to account and to change them peacefully when necessary is what democracy is all about, and on that score 2024 was a great success.

Many governments, as usual, tried to avoid running the risk of public disapproval, but they did not always succeed. Bangladesh’s authoritarian government was overthrown by a popular revolution; a coup attempt was defeated in Bolivia, as was an attempt to implement martial law in South Korea. Syria’s awful dictatorship was finally toppled, while its counterpart in Burma/Myanmar is looking shakier than ever. And while dodgy elections favored incumbents in Venezuela, Mozambique and Georgia, public protest may yet force change.

There were backward steps as well. Authoritarian regimes consolidated in such places as Azerbaijan and Tunisia, and political deadlock continued in Bulgaria. The war in Ukraine continued its path of death and destruction, with an increasing likelihood that Ukraine will be forced to agree to a truce on unfavorable terms. And the poison of racism and xenophobia continued to be spread by far-right parties and propagandists, often with the complicity of their mainstream rivals.

On the whole, however, the positive stories have outweighed the negative ones. Democracy still faces major threats, and there will be rocky waters ahead in 2025, but reports of its death are greatly exaggerated.

So here’s my traditional list of the top elections for the year, expanded to 15 in view of the bumper crop (compare last year’s list here). Links are included to some of the original commentary, which usually contains pointers to additional information.

• 8 February, Pakistan (parliament): ostensibly a democratic exercise, but with Imran Khan, the leader of the largest party, in jail it was clear that the military retained the upper hand. Even so his supporters retained a plurality, although it was not enough to prevent his opponents forming a coalition government.
• 14 February, Indonesia (president & legislature): war criminal Prabowo Subianto was elected president at his third attempt by a comfortable margin. His predecessor’s rule was not a good time for Indonesian democracy but the fundamentals remain intact, and there are some signs that Prabowo has mellowed with the years.
• 10 April, South Korea (legislature): the centre-left opposition retained its large parliamentary majority, an event that would not be particularly noteworthy but for the fact that it apparently drove president Yoon Suk-yeol to declare martial law earlier this month, resulting in a dramatic confrontation and ultimately his impeachment.
• 29 May, South Africa (parliament): the African National Congress, which has governed since the introduction of democracy, lost its majority for the first time. It formed a coalition with the largest opposition party, which has produced some tensions but also brings some much-needed new thinking on the country’s problems.
• 19 April – 1 June, India (parliament): another one that surprised the pundits, with prime minister Narendra Modi going backwards and forced to rely on his allies to maintain his majority. As in many places, a bad electoral system was one of an autocrat’s best friends.
• 2 June, Mexico (president & legislature): probably the best result for incumbents all year; the ruling party won a landslide, making Claudia Sheinbaum the country’s first female president. The traditional Mexican party system seems gone for good, although it is far from clear what will replace it.
• 6-9 June, European Union (parliament): further gains for the far right dominated the headlines, but the basics of power in the EU didn’t change. Prime minister Ursula von der Leyen was subsequently confirmed in office for a second term with a relatively comfortable margin.
• 4 July, United Kingdom (parliament): prime minister Rishi Sunak went five months early, but it didn’t do him any good. The opposition Labour Party under Keir Starmer won a landslide victory, albeit with only about a third of the vote. The far right showed renewed strength, although the electoral system prevented it from winning more than a handful of seats.
• 28 June & 5 July, Iran (president): Iran’s president was killed in a helicopter crash, and in the election to replace him the regime’s opponents turned out to give democracy one more try, electing reformist Masoud Pezeshkian with 53.7% in the second round. His capacity to effect change is limited, and the west seems set against engagement in any case.
• 30 June & 7 July, France (parliament): another unexpected election, as president Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament in the wake of the far right’s strong performance in the EU election. He succeeded in denying them a majority, but the resulting fragmented parliament has so far been unable to sustain a new government.
• 21 September, Sri Lanka (president): having overthrown their authoritarian leader in 2022, Sri Lankans again showed that they could not be taken for granted, defeating the temporary incumbent and electing third-party candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake in his place. Two months later he went on to win a big parliamentary majority.
• 27 October, Japan (parliament): one of the year’s most surprising results. Prime minister Shigeru Ishiba decided to go early and the voters didn’t like the idea: his Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority, although the opposition parties were unable to agree on replacing him and he was able to survive (so far) with a minority government.
• 30 October, Botswana (parliament): African democracy had a good year, with opposition victories in Senegal and Ghana, but Botswana was the most striking case. The Botswana Democratic Party, in office since the 1960s, was heavily defeated and its centre-left opponents took office with a healthy majority.
• 20 October & 3 November, Moldova (president & referendum): the pro-western government had a close shave with its referendum to endorse EU membership, but the runoff for the presidency saw a strong victory for the incumbent over her pro-Russian challenger. (No such clear decision in big brother Romania, which remains in limbo.)
• 5 November, United States (president & legislature): the one that really requires no comment. A deeply divided country turned narrowly to its former president, who will return bent on revenge against his enemies, but also four years older and more tired. How well the world can weather the storm looks like being the big story of next year, and beyond.

On that sober note, let me wish all our readers a very happy new year. I hope 2024 has been good to you; next week we’ll return with a preview of some of the things to expect in 2025.