Bayrou gets his chance

French centrist leader François Bayrou hasn’t been mentioned here for a while, but back in March 2017 I did point out that although he had “given up his dream of becoming president” he “may well hope to be in line to be prime minister under [Emmanuel] Macron.” Macron did indeed win the presidency, but Bayrou was passed over, several times, for the prime minister’s job, although he served for a short time as Keeper of the Seals, or justice minister.

Now, however, the veteran has his chance. Following the fall of Michel Barnier’s government on a vote of no confidence, Macron promised that he would quickly come up with an alternative, and Bayrou is it. He was evidently not his first choice, but he was ultimately persuaded that he was the best chance for avoiding Barnier’s fate.

The invariable rule in the fifth French republic has been that when the president’s party has a parliamentary majority, the president is the one in charge and the prime minister is his (they have all so far been men) lieutenant. Since 2022 Macron has not had a majority, but he has tried to continue the practice: with Élisabeth Borne, Gabriel Attal and even to a large extent Barnier, it was still clearly Macron’s government.

Bayrou was the one possibility with the stature and experience to stand up to the president. He and Macron have the same project in mind – to build a majority by drawing in the centre-left – but Bayrou will pursue it in his own fashion, even if Macron has to sometimes take a back seat as a result.

It’s been a long journey to get to here. Bayrou, who is now 73, first came to prominence as education minister under centre-right president Jacques Chirac in the 1990s. He then became leader of the centrist Union for French Democracy (UDF), and began to take it in a more independent direction, breaking its traditional alliance with the centre-right. In 2007 Bayrou placed third in the presidential election with 18.6% of the vote; Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal promised to make him prime minister if she won, but he refused (contrary to what the BBC tells you) to endorse either her or her successful opponent, Nicolas Sarkozy.

Most of the UDF’s MPs wanted to stick with the centre-right, so Bayrou formed his own party, the Democratic Movement (MoDem). In 2012 he only managed 9.1% of the vote for president, but this time he gave his support to Socialist François Hollande. With the centre-left in power MoDem then tacked back towards the right, and in 2017 it became a key part of Macron’s coalition.

So Bayrou has a history of alliance-building, and he will certainly need it. Progress has already been made: the centre-left parties (Socialists, Greens and Communists) all participated in discussions with Macron last week, and have agreed to meet Bayrou this week, despite the opposition of their far-left ally, Unsubmissive France (LFI). They are so far maintaining their refusal to join a government that they do not lead, but they seem open to at least a temporary agreement to refrain from unseating the new administration.

Bayrou also has a history of strong support for fiscal responsibility, something that France desperately requires; a downgrade in its credit rating arrived on his first day in office. Winning a majority for that will also not be easy, and it’s possible that it’s something that only a prime minister from the left will be able to do. But Bayrou at least is determined to make the attempt.