Ireland & Iceland

The elections just keep on coming this year. Today and tomorrow two countries in north-western Europe go to the polls, evidently selected to create maximum confusion among observers. Neither was due until next year, but political opportunism in one and political crisis in the other have brought voters out early.

In Ireland, which votes today, prime minister Simon Harris decided that his prospects were good and unlikely to get better. His government is a three-party coalition between his own Fine Gael, its historic rival Fianna Fáil, and the Greens. Between them they won 50.2% of the vote at the last election, in 2020, and 85 of the 160 seats.

Since Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have dominated the country’s politics for nearly a century, it was a remarkable comedown for them to be well short of a majority even in combination and to need the Greens as well. But it doesn’t look like getting any better; the opinion polls have them both still languishing down around 20%, with perhaps another 4% of so for the Greens. A couple of months ago Fine Gael had built up a break of a few points on its rivals, but campaign gaffes by Harris – or perhaps just the simple fact of calling an early election – have seen most of that whittled away.

The main opposition party, Sinn Féin, topped the poll last time with 24.5% of the vote but won only 37 seats, one fewer than Fianna Fáil, mainly because it didn’t field enough candidates (it has learnt from that mistake). The remaining 38 seats are spread across a range of minor parties and independents, among which Labour and the Social Democrats were the most important players with six seats each.

A couple of years ago Sinn Féin was carrying all before it in the polls, registering scores in the mid-30s. Since then it has fallen back and again seems roughly on a par with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. So the options are most likely going to be the same as they were in 2020: either the two traditional parties work together, or else Fianna Fáil (despite its protests) takes the plunge and tries to bring Sinn Féin within the tent.

Iceland, somewhat further out in the Atlantic Ocean, votes tomorrow. Its prime minister, Bjarni Benediktsson, had less choice about going early; internal divisions within the government threatened the loss of his majority, although he seems to have welcomed the chance to sort things out.

The outgoing government is a coalition between Benediktsson’s Independence Party (centre-right), the Progressive Party (centrist-agrarian) and the Left-Greens, which has been in office for two terms, since 2017. It had a solid parliamentary majority, with 37 of the 63 seats, but its heterogeneity finally caught up with it. Benediktsson evidently hopes to be able to put together a new government without the Left-Greens, who are at risk of dropping below the 5% threshold.

But in a confused multi-party situation, a right-of-centre majority is far from certain. The polls show the opposition Social Democrats (centre-left) in the lead, followed by the liberal Reform Party. The Independence Party, the Centre Party (right-wing agrarian) and the People’s Party (centrist-populist) are fighting for third place in the low to mid-teens, followed by the Progressives further back.

In addition to the Left-Greens, the Pirates and the far-left Socialist Party are also close to the 5% mark; the latter just missed out in 2021 but looks better placed this year. The electoral system performed well last time, but its multi-member electorates are badly malapportioned and can sometimes distort representation: that’s most likely to hurt Reform and to benefit the Progressives and the Centre.