Election preview: Venezuela

Venezuela goes to the polls on Sunday (Monday in Australia) in a presidential election that pits incumbent Nicolás Maduro against nine opponents, of whom the only one that matters is Edmundo González, representing the opposition Democratic Unitary Platform.

It’s been quite a while since there was any interest in a Venezuelan election. Maduro won election very narrowly back in 2013 after the death of his predecessor, Hugo Chávez; two years later his opponents won a big majority in the legislature, and since then he has resorted to increasingly authoritarian means to prevent public opinion from unseating him. The presidential election of 2018 was a charade, and the 2020 legislative election was boycotted by the opposition as the country descended into chaos.

But channels of communication between the two sides remained open, and last year, after inconclusive talks with the government, the opposition decided to participate in this year’s election. Its first candidate, María Corina Machado, was disqualified by the government, and its second choice, Corina Yoris, was blocked when she tried to nominate. González, a little-known former diplomat, is its third string.

Although Maduro has tight control of the media and the organs of state, the opposition has been able to mount a strong campaign with a promise of national reconciliation. Opinion polling in places like Venezuela is fraught with difficulty, but the respectable pollsters all put González in the lead, most of them by more than twenty points (sometimes much more).

Voting is simple nationwide first-past-the-post; there are no complexities like the electoral college to provide opportunities for hijacking the result, unless by direct old-fashioned ballot-stuffing. There is, however, an exceptionally long transition period. Maduro’s term does not end until 10 January, and there is much speculation about what could happen in that time, with conflicting signals coming from the government as to whether it would be willing to accept defeat.

Leaders from the democratic left such as Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro have urged Maduro to commit to respecting the democratic process; so has the United States, which has recently resumed contact with Venezuela. If González wins, it’s likely that a deal will be on the table in which a comprehensive amnesty would be offered to Maduro and his cronies in return for their recognition of the result.