EOFY election roundup

As the financial year draws to a close, time for a quick look at electoral news from around the world.

Iceland

Iceland went to the polls on 1 June. Its president is a fairly typical Westminster-style head of state with mostly ceremonial powers, directly elected for a four-year term in a single first-past-the-post ballot. Incumbent Guðni Jóhannesson, a historian, was first elected in 2016 with only 39.1% of the vote, but four years later he was re-elected with only token opposition, winning 92.2%.

There are no term limits, so Jóhannesson could have run again, but after two terms he decided to retire. A big field of twelve candidates nominated to replace him, including a former prime minister, a former mayor of Reykjavík and several other distinguished figures. Half of the candidates were women, including the top three placegetters.

Halla Tómasdóttir, a businesswoman who had been runner-up in 2016, took the prize with 34.1% of the vote (see official results here; I have factored out the informals). She led by about 19,000 votes from Katrín Jakobsdóttir, the Green-Left prime minister who resigned in April to run for president, who took 25.2%. Energy expert Halla Hrund Logadóttir was third on 15.7% while the best of the men was Jón Gnarr with 10.1%. Turnout was a very impressive 80.8%.

North Macedonia

North Macedonia has a new prime minister this week, with right-wing leader Hristijan Mickoski approved by a vote of confidence in parliament on Sunday. Parliamentary and presidential elections were held together while I was on holiday, on 8 May; the outgoing government, a coalition of the centre and centre-left with parties representing the Albanian minority, was decisively defeated, with its two tickets winning in aggregate just 29.8% of the vote (down 17.5% from 2020) and 36 of the 120 seats (down 25).

The ticket led by Mickoski’s party, VMRO-DPMNE, topped the poll with 44.6% and 58 seats, only three short of a majority in its own right. Its candidate, Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, also comfortably won the presidential election, beating centre-left incumbent Stevo Pendarovski by more than 300,000 votes, 69.0% to 31.0%. She had led 41.2% to 20.5% in the first round, held two weeks earlier.

Social Democrat leader Dimitar Kovačevski conceded defeat and Mickoski reached a coalition agreement with another Albanian ticket, VLEN (10.9% and 14 seats), and the far-right ZNAM (5.6% and six seats). The new government has promised to continue on the path of European integration, but its nationalist outlook threatens problems, especially in relations with neighboring Greece and Macedonia Bulgaria.

Panama

Panama is also getting a new government, with conservative José Raúl Mulino to be sworn in as president next Monday, following his victory in the election held on 5 May. Like Iceland, voting is first-past-the-post; Mulino won with 34.2%, beating anti-corruption candidate Ricardo Lombana on 24.6%. Christian democrat Martín Torrijos was third with 16.0%. Mulino was a last-minute substitute for the previous favorite, former president Ricardo Martinelli, who was disqualified due to a conviction for money laundering.

Presidents cannot serve consecutive terms, so centre-left incumbent Laurentino Cortizo was unable to stand, but his party did badly, managing only sixth place with 5.9%. Panama’s party system seems to be undergoing a major shakeup: Mulino’s party, “Realising Goals”, is a newcomer to the field, while the traditional nationalist party, the Panameñistas, also had a bad day.

The legislative election held at the same time – there is full separation of powers – also suggests a degree of popular dissatisfaction, with 20 independents elected among the 71 deputies. (I cannot get the official site to load, so I am relying on Wikipedia for details.) Realising Goals and the centre-left will each have 13 seats, with eight each for the Panameñistas and another centre-right party and only three for Lombana’s Another Way Movement.

Iran

Finally to Iran, which goes to the polls on Friday for an early presidential election. The previous incumbent, Ebrahim Raisi, was victorious in the first round in 2021 with 72.3%, although turnout was low and the informal vote was 13.4%. But on 19 May this year he was killed in a helicopter crash; vice-president Mohammad Mokhber took over as acting president, and a replacement will now be elected for a new four-year term.

Iranian elections are not exercises in democracy, and have become conspicuously less so in recent years. Of the 80 candidates who lodged nominations, 74 were rejected by the Guardian Council, among them the only four women in the field (no woman has ever been allowed to run) as well as (again) former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Three of the six remaining candidates are regarded as serious: parliamentary speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf, who was runner-up in 2013; former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, who placed third in the same election; and Masoud Pezeshkian, the one relative moderate in the field. If none of them wins a majority, a runoff will be held a week later.