Decisions on the right

A number of stories over the last week or so have raised a common theme, one that we’ve often talked about here before. I’ll run through some of the stories first, then try to draw together the theme.

First, from the United States, was the announcement by Mitch McConnell that he would retire at the end of the year from his position as Republican leader in the Senate. For the last few years McConnell has been the leading representative of the mainstream Republican group that is not beholden to Donald Trump but also not willing to go out on a limb to oppose him. His retirement is in part a recognition that that position is becoming untenable.

Second, also from the US, is a piece by Jon Chait explaining how Trump’s pro-Russian policy has gradually become dominant in the Republican Party. In Trump’s first term he was unable to achieve much to support Vladimir Putin because the party, including those who staffed his administration, was generally anti-Russian. Since then, though, things have changed; as Chait puts it:

But during his time in office and after, Trump managed to create, from the grassroots up, a Republican constituency for Russia-friendly policy. The GOP base processes every political event as a contest of tribal loyalty. Once Trump had signaled that friendliness to Russia was a form of fealty to himself, his voters began demanding that their elected leaders and media personalities follow suit.

Then to Europe, and this piece from Politico reporting on Marine Le Pen’s attempt to distance herself from some of her allies on the far right, and particularly from Germany’s AfD following the revelation of its plans for mass deportation of immigrants. Le Pen’s plans both for success in France and increased influence in Europe depend critically on alliance with mainstream centre-right parties and voters; for that, she needs to somehow keep a lid on the extremists.

Finally to Britain, where the Conservatives have been convulsed by an argument over Islamophobia. A backbench MP was suspended from the party after refusing to apologise for spreading conspiracy theories about the Labour mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, but the subsequent debate raised questions as to how seriously that move should be taken, given that anti-Muslim views seem to be shared by several more highly placed Tories as well as a large proportion of the party’s membership.

The common theme in all of this is that the fate of democracy – and therefore perhaps of civilisation itself – will depend to a great extent on what happens to the parties of the centre-right. If they are loyal to the values of constitutional government, the extremists are unlikely to be able to muster the strength to overthrow it. But if they betray the cause, as many of them did in the 1930s, the future looks bleak.

That doesn’t mean that all co-operation with the far right must be excluded. There may be circumstances where a far-right party can be tamed or neutralised by giving it some experience of government (Austria and Sweden are sometimes given as examples). Parties change, and sometimes formerly anti-system parties can join the mainstream: Georgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy is currently the leading case where that may be happening.

The critical thing is not about tactics but about values. Far too many in the centre-right are not just making deals with the far right, but are adopting its distinctive positions: its racism, its paranoia, its contempt for democratic institutions, its hostility to international co-operation. The Republican Party has gone furthest down that road, but its counterparts in Britain, France and Australia are heading the same way.

Some have seen the danger and taken a stand against it – Nikki Haley appears to be one. But others need to join her, and soon.

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PS (Thursday): As regards McConnell, don’t miss Chait’s review of his career, which I think is spot on. “The main story of every Republican who served in this era will be what they did as their party descended into authoritarianism. The defining story of McConnell’s career will be that he chose his own power over democracy.”