February electoral roundup

Time to catch up on some things that have been happening in different parts of the electoral world.

Namibia

A few years ago, in December 2019, we noted that Namibia (formerly known as South-West Africa) had preserved its somewhat shaky democratic credentials with an election in which president Hage Geingob had been re-elected for a second term with 56.2% of the vote. But he was already 78, and earlier this month, aged 82, he died while receiving medical treatment for cancer.

Vice-president Nangolo Mbumba, who happens to be the same age, was promptly sworn in as his replacement, to serve until the expiry of Geingob’s term in just over a year’s time. But Mbumba, very sensibly, also announced that when the election is held in November he would not be a candidate for a further term. Other octogenarian presidents could perhaps take a hint.

Finland

Finland also has a new president, as a result of the second round of the presidential election held on 11 February (see my report on the first round here). Centre-right candidate Alexander Stubb will be sworn in next week after winning with just 51.62% of the vote – apparently the narrowest victory in Finnish history, just edging out the 51.63% with which Tarja Halonen was elected in 2000.

Although he didn’t quite win, Greens candidate Pekka Haavisto did rather better than expected. The margin of about 100,000 votes means that Stubb only netted about 53,000 votes from the candidates eliminated after the first round, even though the leader among them was the far right’s Jussi Halla-aho. It looks as if there may have been a late swing to Haavisto; he actually won narrowly on the votes cast on the day, with Stubb doing better with the advance votes.

Pakistan

Following Pakistan’s controversial election of a fortnight ago, the two parties that had previously governed in coalition, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), have agreed, as expected, to again work together. The PML-N’s Shehbaz Sharif, brother of the eponymous Nawaz, will return as prime minister. With several smaller parties expected to join them, they will command a substantial majority in parliament.

Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), which won the largest share of seats, had originally nominated Omar Ayub to be prime minister, but later bowed to the inevitable and announced that it would go into opposition. Since the PML-N and PPP are historic enemies, it makes sense for the PTI to wait for them to fall out.

There’s nothing unfair about parties that jointly command a majority forming a government, even if neither of them topped the poll. The unfairness resides in the fact that if the military and its allies had not conspired against the PTI beforehand, it’s very likely that it would have won a majority and not just a plurality.

Azerbaijan

It competes in Eurovision and the BBC lists it under Europe, but Azerbaijan is not actually a European country. And indeed its politics are more typical of the Middle East than of Europe, with authoritarian president Ilham Aliyev in office since 2003 and permitting only carefully controlled dissent from his rule.

An election, or “election”, held on 7 February and boycotted by most opposition parties, resulted in Aliyev being returned for a fifth term with 92.1% of the vote. Six tame opponents shared the rest, the best of them being independent Zahid Oruj with 2.2%. The election was held more than a year early to take advantage of Aliyev’s victory in last year’s war with Armenia, although it hardly seems necessary.

Also in the Caucasus, Georgia has a new prime minister: Irakli Garibashvili resigned at the end of January to take up the position of party chairman in advance of the parliamentary election due later this year. He thus switches jobs with Irakli Kobakhidze, who will take their party, Georgian Dream, into the election as prime minister.

United Kingdom

Finally to Britain, where two by-elections last week saw big wins for the opposition Labour Party, which looks in an unbeatable position for the general election expected towards the end of the year. Both were formerly Conservative-held seats: Kingswood’s MP, a former energy minister, had resigned over his opposition to the government’s expansion of oil and gas licenses, while Wellingborough’s MP had been unseated by a recall petition after allegations of bullying and sexual harassment.

In the circumstances it wasn’t surprising that Labour could take both seats, but its margins were impressive. In Kingswood it scored a 16.4% swing to win with 44.9%, a margin of about 2,500 votes. In Wellingborough, where the Conservatives had compounded their problem by selecting the former MP’s partner as their candidate, the swing was an extraordinary 28.5% for a margin of almost 6,500 votes.

By-elections are not always a reliable indicator, but these results are consistent with all the other signs that the government is in deep trouble. Polling consistently shows Labour with a lead of about twenty points.

And in Northern Ireland, which we looked at last month, a new government has finally been sworn in, after a hiatus of just over two years. With Sinn Féin’s Michelle O’Neill as first minister – the first time a nationalist has held the post – it represents a sea change in the province’s politics.