No surprise in Indonesia

As expected, General Prabowo Subianto has been elected the next president of Indonesia (see my preview here). The results will not be official until next month, but the sample counts done on the night are quite reliable and they show a margin that is beyond any doubt: estimates of Prabowo’s vote range between 57.5% and 59.1%. On the official count, currently about half complete, he has 56.8%, as against 25.3% for Anies Baswedan and 17.9% for Ganjar Pranowo, which will translate to a margin of something like 32 million votes.

Prabowo will take office on 20 October, which seems an extraordinarily long transition period; in a close or disputed election it could be a source of considerable mischief. But given that Prabowo had the support (albeit unofficial) of the incumbent, Joko (“Jokowi”) Widodo, it should go reasonably smoothly, although Jokowi will no doubt be doing his best to ensure that his legacy is preserved and continued.

As far as the legislature goes, it’s very much status quo. Of the nine parties currently represented, eight have definitely made it back, and the ninth, the United Development Party, is close to the 4% threshold – it may just miss out. No-one else will join them; the Indonesian Solidarity Party has managed around 3%. And the top eight look like finishing in the same order as last time, or something very like it.

That said, the leading party, the PDI-P – the party both of Ganjar and of Jokowi – has definitely lost ground. In 2019 it won 19.3% of the vote and 128 of the 575 seats; this time it looks to have between 16% and 17%, which should be good for around 110 seats (in a slightly larger chamber, increased to 580). The gap to the next two parties has narrowed significantly: Golkar, the party of former dictator Suharto, is polling around 14%, and Prabowo’s personal vehicle, Gerindra, is about a point further behind.

A lot could happen between now and October, but it seems most likely that the PDI-P will go into opposition and that Prabowo will rely on the combination of Golkar and Gerindra, which will probably hold about 190 seats between them, and aim to build a majority around them with the aid of smaller parties. (The official count for the legislature is only about 10% done, but as it progresses it seems to be edging closer to the sample counts – you can follow its progress here.)