Pakistan tries again

Pakistan goes to the polls today in a parliamentary election being held a few months late – the last one was five and a half years ago – due to a delayed redistribution. But that irregularity is the least of its problems.

By now the Pakistan story is probably familiar to most readers. Elections are held periodically, and a leader takes office usually with the support of the military, which is a handy thing at election time. Then they have a falling out, and the military secures their removal. Sometimes a general tears up the rule book and takes power directly, as did Ayub Khan in 1958, Zia-ul-Haq in 1977 and Pervez Musharraf in 1999.

Since Musharraf’s resignation in 2008 the constitutional forms have been observed: power has been transferred by elections or by votes in parliament. But the old pattern remains. Imran Khan, former test cricket captain and leader of the Movement for Justice or Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI), won the 2018 election and became prime minister with military backing, but alienated the generals with policies that were seen as anti-American. In April 2002 2022 he lost a no-confidence motion and was replaced by the leader of the opposition, Shehbaz Sharif.

Since then things have gone downhill. Out of office, Khan has been much more vociferous in attacking the military and the United States, which he accuses of conspiring against him. If he wasn’t already a victim of conspiracy he certainly became one, being disqualified from office, arrested for corruption and ultimately imprisoned last week on an assortment of trumped-up charges. The PTI has also been banned, with its candidates forced to run as independents.

Khan’s fortunes have been mirrored by those of his chief opponent, three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif (brother of Shehbaz). After winning the 2017 election he too fell out with the military and was disqualified and later imprisoned. He returned to Pakistan last year after four years in exile, and last month the supreme court set aside his disqualification, leaving him free to contest the election as the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N).

So, is the glass half full or half empty? On the one hand, the country’s 15 years of civilian rule is a real achievement; even flawed elections are a big improvement on military coups for settling leadership questions. On the other hand, the persecution of Khan casts a dark shadow over this election, and whoever wins will know that sooner or later they will face a showdown with the military. And Pakistan is a big country: its democratic backsliding, however predictable, is a bad omen for others.

There’s not much in the way of opinion polling, but what there is suggests that the PTI retains significant support. Given the disabilities it faces, though, it seems almost certain that the PML-N and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) will win a majority between them. The two have been governing together in an alliance (with some smaller parties) called the Pakistan Democratic Movement, but historically they are bitter rivals and it is not clear how long they will continue to co-operate.

Voting is first-past-the-post in 266 single-member constituencies, plus 60 seats reserved for women and another ten for non-Muslims. Voters will also choose provincial assemblies in the country’s four provinces: Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly North-West Frontier Province), Punjab and Sindh. Results should appear over the course of tomorrow; the BBC’s coverage is usually pretty good, but you can check out the electoral commission’s website here.