Good news for the mainstream in Finland

Finland went to the polls yesterday in the first European election for 2024. The vote was to elect a new president; incumbent Sauli Niinistö, from the centre-right, is retiring due to term limits. Finland has a parliamentary system so the presidency is mostly ceremonial, but it’s towards the more powerful end of the spectrum for such positions – and with correspondingly interesting elections.

The headline result is that it was close: centre-right candidate Alexander Stubb, a former prime minister, led with 27.2% of the vote, about 45,000 votes ahead of the Greens’ Pekka Haavisto, a former foreign minister, on 25.8%. But since the top two candidates go to a runoff in a fortnight’s time, their finishing order isn’t all that important. (See official results here.)

More significant is the fact that both were comfortably clear of the far-right candidate, Jussi Halla-aho, who had 19.0%. Some polls had shown him threatening the two front-runners, leading to some worried speculation, but he fell short on the day. In fourth place was the Centre Party’s Olli Rehn on 15.3%, with another five contenders back in single digits. Turnout was a very healthy 74.9%.

The opinion polls give Stubb a slight edge for the second round, but it’s too close to call. In that respect it’s the reverse of the 2012 election, when Niinistö first got the job: then it was close in the first round as to who his opponent would be (Haavisto, making his first attempt, narrowly edged out the Centre’s candidate), but the runoff was very clear, with Niinistö taking 62.6%.

Yesterday’s result is a good omen for what will be a big election year in Europe. It suggests the mainstream parties are still firmly in the saddle, and that while the far-right True Finns, who are in government as a junior partner to the centre-right, have a substantial block of support they remain very much a minority. Halla-aho’s result is actually a point down on the 20.1% that his party got at last year’s parliamentary election.

And speaking of European elections, an update to the story from a few weeks ago about Charles Michel planning to desert his position as European Union head of state to run for the EU parliament. Following widespread criticism, Michel thought better of the idea and has now announced that he will stay put until the end of his term. A small step forward for constitutional common sense.