Division dooms Taiwan’s opposition

Taiwan is well ahead of its angry sibling, China, and many of its other neighbors in holding democratic elections. But its electoral system – which it shares with nearby South Korea and the Philippines – is seriously problematic, and on the this occasion has cost the opposition a very likely victory.

As noted in last week’s preview, there had been attempts by the two main opposition parties, the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), to organise a joint ticket to take on the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). But their efforts failed, and the two ran separately. In a fair system, that would not matter greatly; either a second round of voting would be held if no-one won an absolute majority, or else voters would have the chance to express preferences, which would be counted to determine an overall winner.

Instead, Taiwan’s presidency is decided by a simple plurality. So while the headline result was that the DPP won a third term, its candidate, William Lai, had only 40.1% of the vote, down 17.1% on Tsai Ing-wen’s tally from 2020. The KMT’s Hou Yu-ih had 33.5%, followed by Ko Wen-je of the TPP on 26.5%. (Official results are here.) Turnout was 71.9%, down about three points on last time.

First-past-the-post systems depend on voters working out what’s going on and switching their support to a candidate who might represent their second-best choice. The unexpected strong performance by Ko shows that that didn’t happen. If it had, or if there had been preferences or second-round votes to count, it’s a sure bet that Hou would have won.

The opposition did, however, win a majority in the legislature. There the TPP’s vote was a good deal lower, at 22.1%; it didn’t win any of the single-member seats, but it won eight party list seats (up three). The greater concentration of votes with the KMT put it almost level with the DPP (34.6% to 36.2%), and it picked up 14 seats to go to 52, for a combined opposition total of 60 in a house of 113 – the DPP won 51 (down ten), with two independents.

As Kai-Ping Huang writes at the Conversation, “The long-standing two-party system appears to be transitioning into a messy three-party dynamic.” That makes it more difficult than ever to interpret the results in the pro/anti Beijing framework beloved of pundits, but it also reveals the electoral system as less than fit for purpose.

Despite China’s blustering, the overwhelming likelihood is that Taiwan will be left to work out its destiny itself. It could usefully start by overhauling its electoral system.