2024 election preview

Happy new year to all our readers! It’s going to be a big year for elections. Nine of the G20 members are going to the polls – that’s half the total, since China and Saudi Arabia don’t hold elections – although one of them (Russia) is not a democracy and another (South Korea) will only hold legislative elections in a presidential system.

So for those who organise their year around election dates, here’s a quick look at the top ten expected elections, in chronological order. Note that some of the dates are only approximate, and that there’s always the chance of a significant early election, as happened last year in Ecuador and the Netherlands (Israel would be a strong contender this year).

Taiwan (president & parliament, 13 January): incumbent president Tsai Ing-wen has reached her two-term limit, but her Democratic Progressive Party is favored to retain power against divided opposition. Like many governments this year, it is helped by a bad electoral system.

Pakistan (parliament, 8 February): voters will pass judgement on the controversial removal of prime minister Imran Khan in 2022. It’s thought the fix is in for the military, which turned against Khan after backing him at the last election in 2018. Bangladesh will also vote the previous month, but its democracy is in even worse shape.

Indonesia (president & parliament, 14 February): Indonesia will also be getting a new president; alleged war criminal Prabowo Subianto is a strong favorite, but it’s possible that voting will go to a second round for the first time since 2004.

India (parliament, April/May): authoritarian prime minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third term in office; Indian elections sometimes throw up surprises, but at the moment he seems well ahead. Neighboring Sri Lanka will also vote later in the year.

South Africa (parliament, April/May): the African National Congress, in power since democratisation in 1994, is set to retain government, but with a more united opposition it’s at some risk of falling below 50% of the vote. Other big African elections include Algeria, Ghana, Mozambique and Senegal.

European Union (parliament, 6-9 May): Europe’s big multinational election comes at a time when far-right parties are enjoying unprecedented (although not universal) success. Several middle-ranking EU members will also go to the polls, including Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Lithuania, Portugal and Romania.

Mexico (president and legislature, 2 June): Mexican presidents are limited to a single term, so there will be change at the top, but the ruling left-wing populist party, MORENA, is expected to hold power and elect the country’s first female president.

United States (president and legislature, 5 November): the US election will dominate much of the year’s news cycle, with the prospect of a rematch between president Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump – although the former is well past retirement age and the latter is by no means assured of his party’s nomination.

United Kingdom (parliament, November/December?): prime minister Rishi Sunak is well behind in the polls; recovery is not out of the question, but it looks as if a tumultuous 14 and a half years of Conservative government will come to an end.

Venezuela (president, December?): in contrast to Asia and Europe there’s not a lot scheduled this year for South America, but Uruguay votes in October and Venezuela is supposed to have a presidential election. There’s considerable doubt, though, whether president Nicolás Maduro will permit a genuine challenge to his rule.