2023 in review

The year draws to a close, and most of us will farewell 2023 with few regrets. Twelve months ago I said that 2022 had been “a year of high political drama,” and this year has rivalled it. The continuing war in Ukraine has been joined since October by the carnage in Gaza, and liberal democracy remains under siege by the combined and now barely distinguishable forces of Trumpism and Putinism.

A major part of the problem has been the intellectual treason of previously mainstream centre-right parties and organisations that have aligned themselves with the Putinist agenda. Hostility to immigration has become a major bond between them, with this year the themes of racism and antisemitism more explicit than ever (even as many of them also proclaim their solidarity with Israel’s far-right government).

But there have been divisions on the right as well. Many who otherwise side with Trump are uncomfortable with the master’s pro-Russian position, and such diverse figures as Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, Argentina’s Javier Milei and Australia’s own Tony Abbott have been noteworthy for their support of Ukraine. The beginnings of a realignment may be under way.

Donald Trump’s campaign to return to the presidency, and his now explicit intention to move towards dictatorship if he succeeds, casts a grim shadow over the coming year. But there too there is division, with many in the Republican Party, despite their dislike of cosmopolitanism and democracy, unwilling to go all the way with Vladimir Putin. Trump will not have an effortless path to the nomination.

These cross-currents of authoritarian and anti-authoritarian politics were reflected in the elections of 2023. Here are my top ten for the year, in chronological order as usual (compare the preview from twelve months ago), with links to the original commentary:

• 25 February, Nigeria (president & parliament): the governing party succeeds in getting its candidate elected for president, but with less than 40% of the vote. Among the malign effects of British colonialism, bad electoral systems are by no means the least harmful.
• 2 April, Bulgaria (parliament): the fifth election in less than two years again reflects Bulgaria’s complex political divisions, but this time a pro-Ukrainian coalition forms a majority government.
• 14 May, Thailand (parliament): parties opposed to the military government win a large majority, but in post-election manoeuvres one of them agrees to partner with the military in a wary coalition.
• 14 & 28 May, Turkey (president & parliament): autocrat Recep Tayyip Erdoğan fends off a strong opposition challenge, but his narrow majority suggests that there is life yet in Turkish democracy.
• 23 July, Spain (parliament): a surprise triumph for centre-left prime minister Pedro Sánchez, who risks an early election and retains his majority with the aid of regionalist parties.
• 20 August & 15 October, Ecuador (president & parliament): president Guillermo Lasso uses a snap dissolution to resolve a conflict with congress but then declines to run again; instead centrist Daniel Noboa becomes the country’s youngest-ever president.
• 14 October, New Zealand (parliament): Australia’s near neighbor continues its remarkable run of rejecting prime ministers who take office mid term. Centre-right leader Christopher Luxon wins office less comfortably than he had hoped, with a somewhat unwieldy coalition.
• 15 October, Poland (parliament): in the year’s biggest win for democracy Poland’s far-right government goes down to an unexpectedly heavy defeat, to be replaced by a broad coalition headed by centre-right leader Donald Tusk.
• 22 October & 19 November, Argentina (president & parliament): Argentina evicts its left-Peronist establishment and chooses a self-styled “libertarian” president, who sounds some familiar far-right themes but also has some genuinely free-market policies.
• 22 November, Netherlands (parliament): an early election produces a swing to the far right, with veteran extremist Geert Wilders heading the largest party, but his chance of forming government is not good.

Only two G20 countries, Turkey and Argentina, went to the polls (there will be a lot more next year), but several countries just outside that group voted, including Nigeria, Spain, Poland and the Netherlands. The overall trend was clearly to the right – especially in Europe, where Finland, Greece, Luxembourg and Switzerland also swung that way – but it was also a rocky road for a number of authoritarian leaders.

Democracy in Africa remains in an embattled state; coup leaders seized power in Niger and Gabon, and most elections were unsatisfactory at best, including in perennial favorite Zimbabwe. But Liberia’s opposition won the presidency and took office peacefully. There was less electoral activity in Asia, although the last remnants of democracy in Cambodia and Hong Kong were snuffed out. Next year will be big in the east, with elections in India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Taiwan, among others.

A very happy new year to all our readers – I hope you’ve managed to find some peace and satisfaction in your lives despite the world’s troubles! Next week we’ll preview some of the big elections to expect in 2024.