A bumper Latin American roundup

As 2023 draws to a close there are a number of loose ends to tie up in Latin America.

Chile

The Chilean referendum on a new draft constitution, the second attempt in as many years, was held on 17 December – you can read my preview here. As expected, it was decisively defeated, with 55.8% voting No. That’s quite an improvement, though, on the 2022 draft, which was rejected with 61.9%, confirming that there has been something of a shift to the right.

President Gabriel Boric, who had supported the first draft and opposed the second one, says there will be no third attempt.

Argentina

Javier Milei, elected last month as president of Argentina with a comfortable second-round majority, was duly sworn into office two weeks ago. Although the self-styled “libertarian” has toned down some of his rhetoric, his tenure promises to be controversial; protests have already begun against his economic policies, despite his clear mandate for them.

His inaugural address was thought to contain echoes of Donald Trump’s in 2017 and was watched by such Trumpy guests as Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. But there were indications that his politics are rather different from the normal Trumpist fare: his economics is much more pro-market [link added] and anti-protectionist, and he has styled himself a strong supporter of Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky was also among the invited guests, as was Chile’s Boric.

Guatemala

No such straightforward accession to power for Guatemala’s president-elect, Bernardo Arévalo, who won a landslide victory back in August with 60.9% of the second-round vote. He is due to take office on 14 January, but being from the left – albeit the moderate left – he has aroused fierce resistance from the country’s right-wing establishment, which has resorted to a variety of legal manoeuvres to keep him out.

The public prosecutor’s office succeeded in having the registration of Arévalo’s party suspended and has demanded that the election result be voided. But not all of Guatemala’s institutions are up for a coup; the electoral office has stood by the result, and earlier this month the constitutional court ordered Arévalo’s inauguration to proceed. The international community also seems to be strongly behind Guatemalan democracy.

Peru

It’s a year since Peru’s then left-wing president, Pedro Castillo, attempted to dissolve congress and impose a state of emergency, only to be promptly impeached and removed from office, being replaced by vice-president Dina Boluarte. Protests showed that Castillo continued to enjoy significant public support, but moves to effect a compromise by calling early elections were unsuccessful.

Boularte therefore looks like remaining in office until scheduled elections in 2026. In the meantime her government has drifted to the right, symbolised by the release from prison earlier this month of former president Alberto Fujimori, jailed since 2009 for human rights abuses and corruption. The constitutional court had recommended his release last year on compassionate grounds (he is 85 and apparently in poor health), but Castillo’s government refused the request; this time Boularte’s government acted.

Venezuela

There’s also Venezuela, and its complex and long-running border dispute with Guyana, which has been making headlines since a referendum held at the beginning of this month. But for now this one is too much of a moving target, and deserves a separate post sometime in January. This story from the Conversation will help get you up to speed on the issue.