A big, chaotic election

With only a few days until Christmas, there’s still quite a lot happening in the electoral world. That includes a big election yesterday: the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), a huge central African country that gets almost no attention in the west, went to the polls to vote for both president and parliament.

The previous DRC election, five years ago, had been something of a landmark. President Joseph Kabila, in office since succeeding his father in 2001, stepped down in accordance with the constitutional term limit, and was succeeded by an opposition candidate. Félix Tshisekedi of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress was declared elected with 38.6% of the vote, ahead of another opposition candidate, Martin Fayulu, with 34.8% and the government’s Emmanuel Shadary on 23.8%. (Voting is single-round first-past-the-post.)

This was not quite the democratic triumph that it might appear. There’s a general view that Fayulu actually won the vote, but that Kabilia did a deal with Tshisekedi as the more tractable option. Groups aligned with Kabila’s party won a majority in parliament, and since power is shared on the French model between president and parliament, Tshisekedi subsequently appointed veteran Kabila ally Sylvestre Ilunga as prime minister.

Nonetheless, the symbolism of a democratic transition of power, however flawed, was a definite step forward. And Kabila’s power turned out not to be as great as he thought; in December 2020 Tshisekedi broke with him and forged a new parliamentary coalition, which ousted Ilunga in a vote of no confidence the following month. Sama Lukonde, a Tshisekedi loyalist, took over the job, and the new government consolidated its power in provincial elections last year.

Now Tshisekedi is seeking re-election for a second term. Fayulu is running again, as are 17 other candidates, including prominent businessman and former provincial governor Moïse Katumbi, Nobel laureate Denis Mukwege and former prime minister Adolphe Muzito. As is almost inevitable in a large and poor country with minimal infrastructure, voting has been a logistical disaster. Polls were due to close at 3am this morning (eastern Australian time), but voting has been extended due to what Al-Jazeera describes as “widespread delays, opposition allegations of fraud, violence, and logistical setbacks.”

There’s no doubt that the DRC is beset by major problems, but Tshisekedi’s time in office has recorded some modest successes, including an impressive rate of economic growth. Against divided opposition, it’s very likely that a fair election – which this pretty obviously is not – would see him comfortably returned. The more difficult test will come in 2028, when he will not be eligible for a third term.

It’s been an indifferent year for democracy in Africa, with coups in Niger and Gabon, a rather unsatisfactory election in Nigeria and much more dubious ones in Madagascar and other places (including just last week in Egypt). Against that there have been a few bright spots, such as an opposition victory last month in Liberia. A semi-credible result in the DRC would be a continuation of that equivocal trend.