I’m not going to get to writing about Serbia until tomorrow or Thursday – if you’re keen you can check out the BBC report here – but I wanted to quickly draw attention to another issue, via a piece in yesterday’s Guardian. It’s an interview with Daniel Seidemann, an Israeli lawyer who is an occasional adviser to British foreign secretary and former prime minister David (Lord) Cameron.
I mentioned last month that I was something of a fan of Cameron, and this is a good example of why. He’s the sort of politician who actually thinks for himself, who seeks out and listens to expert advice before making up his mind. That doesn’t mean he always reaches the right decisions, but I think he’s at least trying: it’s the antithesis of the Trumpist mode of governing.
Seidemann’s speciality is the implications of the Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories, especially in the area of Jerusalem. In this interview, he puts a number on what’s required to make a two-state solution feasible:
If Israel has the will, or capacity, to relocate 200,000 settlers from the West Bank and Jerusalem, a two-state solution is a viable option. If it does not have the will, the two-state solution is dead. The number might be better than most people think, but it is quite daunting.
That’s very much a minority of the total of 700,000 Israeli settlers, but it’s still a huge undertaking. More to the point, as Seidemann emphasises, there is no sign of any willingness on the part of the Israeli government to even make a start: “Currently, Israel does not have the will to relocate one settler.”
Partisans of the Israeli government are very good at pointing out the different ways in which Palestinian actions or attitudes over the years have frustrated the achievement of a two-state solution. Some are fanciful, but many are genuine enough. What is undeniable, however – and what they prefer not to mention – is that the settlement project has been a deliberate strategy on the part of successive Israeli governments to make a Palestinian state impossible.
In the face of that, Palestinian attitudes are of minimal relevance. There is no way of progressing towards a two-state solution without a fundamental change in the official Israeli approach. Nor, of course, are those same politicians interested in a single state with equal rights for all. But with those options ruled out, the logic of Likud’s position pushes inexorably towards genocide.
Do read the whole thing; Seidemann has interesting things to say about Benjamin Netanyahu’s future, the responsibility of the international community and normalisation of relations between Israel and the Arab states. He says that the latter in practice “was a disaster, because it disincentivised Israel from reaching a deal on the Palestinian question and left Palestinians feeling hopeless.”
If Cameron is listening to voices like this, and is able to spread the message to other western governments, it’s just possible that the region can be pulled back from the brink. But the hour is very late.
The World is Not Enough 