Spring electoral roundup (I)

There’s been a lot happening in the electoral world. Here I try to cover some of it, but there’ll have to be another instalment, maybe next week.

Maldives

The Maldives voted a week and a half ago in the second round of their presidential election. You can read my report on the first round here; following a split in his party, incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih trailed his rival, mayor of Malé Mohamed Muizzu, by some 15,000 votes, 46.0% to 39.1%.

I said that “seven points is a lot to make up,” and so it proved. In fact Muizzu increased his margin slightly, prevailing in the runoff with 54.0% to Solih’s 46.0%. Solih promptly conceded defeat and congratulated his opponent, praising the “exemplary democratic spirit” of the people. Muizzu immediately moved to secure the release of Solih’s predecessor, Abdulla Yameen, who had been imprisoned for corruption.

There’s concern internationally that the result will mean a shift in the Maldives’ alliance from India to China, and potentially a return to the authoritarianism that characterised the rule of Yameen and his half-brother, Abdul Gayoom. But it’s also possible that Muizzu will have learnt from Yameen’s mistakes and proceed cautiously. And with five successive presidents now having been defeated seeking re-election, Maldives democracy certainly seems to be functioning.

Liberia

Liberia went to the polls yesterday for presidential and congressional elections. Incumbent president George Weah won the job six years ago when he defeated then-vice-president Joseph Boakai with 61.5% in the second round. It was the first peaceful transfer of power in Liberia from one party to another in more than a hundred years.

Now Weah, who represents the Congress for Democratic Change, is seeking a second term. Boakai is also running again, for the opposition Unity Party; other candidates include Alexander Cummings, who scored 7.2% to take fifth place last time, human rights lawyer Tiawan Gongloe, Benoni Urey (sixth in 2017 with 1.6%), Sara Nyanti, and 14 others. Boakai is regarded as the main challenger, but although Weah’s performance has been underwhelming, first-term presidents are generally hard to beat.

Counting is under way, but no results have been released so far. If no candidate wins a first-round majority a runoff will be held, probably on 8 November. Also up for election are the 73 members of the House of Representatives and half of the 30-member Senate (both first-past-the-post in single-member districts).

Scotland

Great excitement in Scotland last week when Labour scored a comfortable victory in a House of Commons by-election, defeating the Scottish National Party by more than thirty points to win the seat of Rutherglen & Hamilton West.

The win wasn’t unexpected; it was a relatively marginal seat to start with (the SNP won it with 44.2% in 2019) and its sitting member had been unseated on a recall petition after breaching Covid regulations. But Labour’s margin was surprisingly large: its candidate, Michael Shanks, scored 58.6% (up 24.1%), almost ten thousand votes ahead of the new SNP candidate on 27.6% (down 16.6%). The Conservatives were a very distant third on 3.9%, with another 11 candidates bringing up the rear.

Since the SNP won 48 of Scotland’s 59 seats last time and Labour only one, and since both Labour and its potential voters have been spooked by the idea of having to rely on the SNP for a majority at Westminster, this is a big morale boost for it. It looks as if the SNP is paying the price for its recent internal warfare. But leaders have come to grief before for putting too much faith in by-elections.

Bolivia

Readers may remember the saga of Bolivia’s disputed election in 2019 and its sequel the following year. Leftist president Evo Morales, having defied the constitution to run again, was removed in a soft coup, but contrary to expectations his ally, Luis Arce, won a big victory in the election to replace him.

If you’ve seen enough of these things you could almost write the next part of the script yourself. Morales returned from exile expecting to be treated as the one still in charge, and Arce refused to be sidelined. The next election is due in 2025, and both men expressed an intention to seek the nomination of their party, the MAS.

But although Arce is president, Morales still controls the party organisation, so last week a party congress stacked with his supporters expelled Arce, together with his vice-president and “dozens more legislators, officials and activists loyal to” him. It’s reminiscent of the dispute in nearby Ecuador between president Rafael Correa and his successor Lenín Moreno; that ended badly for both of them, with the centre-right winning the presidency next time around, and a similar outcome seems quite likely in Bolivia.