A runoff in the Maldives

There was just one small but interesting election held at the weekend. The Maldives, a chain of islands in the Indian Ocean with a population of about half a million, went to the polls on Saturday in the first round of their presidential election. Since no candidate won a majority of the vote, a runoff will be held in three weeks time, on 30 September.

Long-term readers might remember earlier instalments of the Maldives story. In 2008, after years of authoritarian rule, the country elected a left-leaning president, Mohamed Nasheed, who was then removed in a soft coup in 2012. A chaotic series of events in 2013 eventually led to the election of Abdulla Yameen, the half-brother of the former dictator, who narrowly beat Nasheed in a runoff with 51.3% of the vote.

Yameen then tried to rebuild the authoritarian state. Nasheed was convicted of abuse of power and sentenced to prison; the conviction was later overturned, but he decided not to risk contesting the 2018 presidential election. Instead, the opposition nominated his close friend and colleague Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, and in an upset result Solih beat Yameen comfortably, winning with 58.4%.

The sequel was all too predictable. Solih and Nasheed had a falling out, and when their Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) endorsed Solih for re-election, Nasheed walked out and established a new party, the Democrats. Yameen sought to run again, but in the meantime he had been sent to jail for corruption and was ruled ineligible; instead, his Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) nominated Mohamed Muizzu, the mayor of the capital, Malé.

Against divided opponents, Muizzu led the field on Saturday with 46.0% of the vote, about 15,000 votes ahead of Solih on 39.1%. The candidate of the Democrats, Ilyas Labeeb, was a poor third with 7.1%, and another five contenders shared the remaining 7.8%. Turnout was 79.4% – down almost ten points on 2018.

If he is to prevail in the second round, Solih will need to draw in some of those voters who stayed away, as well as winning over most of the supporters of Labeeb and the lesser candidates. It’s not impossible, but seven points is a lot to make up. Despite Labeeb’s poor showing, Nasheed can be quite pleased with the result, since he may be able to extract a price for his support.

As Al-Jazeera’s report puts it, quoting Ahmed Shaheed, a former Maldives foreign minister:

Nasheed looks like the biggest winner in today’s outcome, elevating himself to the status of kingmaker …
He is likely to back Solih, subject to being able to get a pledge on a referendum on a parliamentary model of governance and some policy and personnel changes in government and the party. His pro-India stance will also be a factor in which side he backs.

Nasheed’s wish to move from a presidential to a parliamentary system (with a view to himself becoming prime minister) was one of the sources of conflict between him and Solih. As I’ve argued before, parliamentary government is one thing that could help overcome some of the entrenched conflicts in countries like the Maldives. But for now, Nasheed and Solih need to come to terms.