Zimbabwe sticks with Mnangagwa

There’s a general lack of surprise at the Zimbabwean election result, in which president Emmerson Mnangagwa was declared re-elected with 52.6% of the vote, against 44.0% for his main challenger, Nelson Chamisa. (Official figures here; see also last week’s preview.) Mnangagwa’s party, ZANU-PF, also retained its majority in the National Assembly.

The opposition Citizens’ Coalition for Change (CCC) has cried foul and refused to recognise the result, with Chamisa alleging “blatant and gigantic fraud”. But there is no prospect that Zimbabwe’s judicial system will give a sympathetic hearing to its claims.

And the reality is that while this was a deeply unfair election, it does not look like a fraudulent one. Polling was chaotic, as it often is, but there is nothing to indicate widespread ballot stuffing or manipulation of results. The unfairness lies further back: in the fact that the opposition’s campaign was hamstrung by official harassment and government control of the media.

By African standards, Zimbabwe’s opposition is not badly placed. For the second time running it came within a few points of forcing Mnangagwa to a runoff, and it has increased its parliamentary representation, winning at least nine seats from ZANU-PF.* It won majorities in three of the country’s ten provinces and has a dominant position in the major urban centres. With Mnangagwa constitutionally limited to two terms, 2028 could potentially be a more interesting contest.

That’s not to say that Zimbabweans – or outside observers – should be content with those standards; democracy demands a lot better than Mnangagwa’s unfulfilled promises. Given how close the result was, it’s probable that with a level playing field Chamisa would have won. And there’s a serious risk that the message the government will take from a close result is that control needs to be tightened further.

Nonetheless, it’s worth remembering that things could be a great deal worse. And perhaps worth giving some attention to those countries where they are, but which, because they never had a significant European population, our media tend to ignore.

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* Parliamentary numbers are not yet final, since there are 60 seats reserved for women that are yet to be allocated, by proportional representation. Assuming they go the same way as last time (which will be roughly correct, since there’s little overall swing), ZANU-PF will have 172 seats to the CCC’s 97.