Thai democracy struggles on

This week’s news is that Thailand finally has a new government, more than three months after its general election. Srettha Thavisin of the Pheu Tahi party was confirmed on Tuesday by a large majority in a joint sitting of parliament. Also on Tuesday, Thaksin Shinawatra, former prime minister and founder of Pheu Thai, returned to Thailand after 15 years in exile.

No-one will officially admit the fact, but it is obvious that the two events are related. There’s considerable uncertainty though about the exact nature of the connection and whether or not this is a step forward for Thai democracy.

The problem that has preoccupied the country since May can be fairly simply stated. The new House of Representatives is divided into three blocs of comparable size: Pheu Thai, a reformist party called Move Forward, and a collection of parties broadly aligned with the military. Any two of those together can command a majority: in particular, Pheu Thai and Move Forward, which went into the election as allies, would have no trouble controlling the house.

On that basis, Move Forward’s leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, was commissioned last month to form a government. His problem was that he needed to win approval not just of the lower house but of a joint sitting, in which the military-appointed Senate would also have a say. With the senators voting overwhelmingly not to confirm him, Pita could manage only 324 votes in the 750-seat joint sitting.

But although Pita’s opponents had a majority in the joint sitting, they could not form a government on their own because they would be faced with a hostile House of Representatives. They would need the help of one of the coalition partners. As I explained before the election, when this situation was eminently foreseeable:

Common sense would dictate that the military needs to split the alliance against it and come to some sort of arrangement with either Pheu Thai or Move Forward. … But generals who meddle in politics often, notoriously, fail to abide by the rules of common sense.

Now, however, a deal has been done. Thaksin is back, his party is in government, and although he was quickly sent to jail – he had been sentenced in absentia many years ago for abuse of power – he is unlikely to be there for long [link added]. Back in 2014 the military staged a coup when his sister, then-prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, proposed a pardon for him, but its hand is weaker now and Thaksin himself, now aged 74, is less likely to be seen as a threat.

Nor is his party as strong as it once was, having fallen below expectations in coming second to Move Forward. While its voting strength (under different names) has been very consistent over the years, the prospect of decline would have made it more amenable in negotiations. And despite the generals’ long feud with Thaksin, teaming up with Pheu Thai was a more appealing prospect for them than letting Move Forward take power, given the latter’s hostile attitude to the monarchy.

Many of Pheu Thai’s supporters are evidently unhappy with the arrangement. Nonetheless, the outcome is that parties representing a clear majority of the voters have formed government together: the rules of democracy have been respected. While the Senate is an obviously undemocratic feature, the parties for the time being have no alternative to working within the constitution as they find it.

A great deal could happen between now and the next election – in Thaksin’s relationship with his old enemies, in Move Forward’s efforts to mobilise popular support for system change, in the secretive politics of the royal family. But for now, Thai democracy, imperfect though it is, has survived to fight another day.

Also this week, Spain is making its first effort to form a new government following last month’s election. Centre-right leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo, whose People’s Party won the largest share of seats, has been commissioned as prime minister-designate, but he needs to win a vote of confidence in parliament, and his chance of doing so is very slim.

Assuming Feijóo fails, Socialist incumbent Pedro Sánchez will be given his chance: his prospects are better, but still much less than assured, since he will need to win over (at least to the extent of having them abstain) the hardline separatists of Catalonia. If no-one can win a majority within two months, starting from the time the first parliamentary vote is held, there will yet again be a fresh election.