Election preview: Montenegro

Although it’s a small country, Montenegro put on one of the most interesting elections of 2020, when the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), the party of then-president Milo Đukanović, lost office for the first time in almost thirty years. Đukanović remained as president, cohabiting with a government of his political opponents, until he too was defeated, by centrist Jakov Milatović, in the presidential election two months ago.

But the opposition to Đukanović was so diverse that it was never likely to produce a stable government. The first attempt was led by Zdravko Krivokapić; he had led a ticket called For the Future of Montenegro, which was mostly right-wing and pro-Serbian, although Krivokapić himself seems to have been more of a centrist. His government lasted just over a year before falling on a no-confidence vote in February 2022.

The second attempt saw Dritan Abazović, from the centre-to-centre-left United Reform Action (URA), as prime minister. Although his party is more pro-European than For the Future of Montenegro, he too was accused of being too close to Serbia, and last August was toppled by another vote of no confidence – which he blamed on the influence of organised crime.

Abazović remains in office, however, in a caretaker capacity, because no alternative government has been able to be constructed. Eventually Đukanović, just before the election that ended his term as president, dissolved parliament for a fresh election. This is it.

As is typical in the Balkans, the party landscape looks somewhat different from last time as coalitions have fractured and re-formed. There are four main forces competing: the DPS-led list, called Together!; For the Future of Montenegro, which has shed some of its components but remains basically pro-Serbian; a centrist coalition between URA and Democratic Montenegro, which last time ran separately under the banner “Peace is Our Nation”; and the new pro-European party of president Milatović, Europe Now!.

Opinion polling is scanty, but what there is suggests that the DPS vote has continued to decline and that Europe Now! is well placed. Winning a majority, however, even in conjunction with the centrists, will be a challenge. Voting is proportional (D’Hondt) across the country with a 3% threshold, from which ethnic minority parties are exempt – last time they returned five MPs (three Bosniaks and two Albanians), which could be an important resource for a pro-European government.

It’s a difficult time in the Balkans. The deadlock in neighboring Kosovo continues with no end in sight, although the western powers, for all their scepticism about Serb intentions, are clearly losing patience with Kosovar intransigence. And the Ukraine war continues to disturb the politics of eastern Europe, with forthcoming elections in Slovakia seen as a test of the reach of Russian influence.

In the circumstances, a victory on Sunday for pro-European and anti-oligarchical forces would be a big step forward.